New Mexico State @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Tue, Oct 14, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Liberty · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

3-2 · Power #129

final

Final

Liberty

2-4 · Power #104

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -11.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 17–29 LIB

✓ LIB (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -9.5

CloseLIB -11.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -9.5

2 → LIB

CloseLIB -11.5

2 pts toward Liberty

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -9.5 · closed LIB -11.5 · moved 2 toward LIBmodel LIB -15.5

model LIB -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 39% (91 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (189 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -9.5

CloseLIB -11.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as an 11.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 30–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 10.8; 49.9 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Very close	MTSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	40–6	W	U51
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	OHIO vs EMU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	35–10	W	U51.5
Very close	SHSU vs LT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-10.5	9–3	L	U45.5
Very close	WYO vs UNM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-14	35–26	L	O41
Close	NIU vs EMU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-12	20–13	L	U43.5
Close	BALL vs CONN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-9.5	25–21	L	U47.5
Close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Close	MTSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-8	34–30	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LWLLW	2-3	40%	0-2	2-2
LIB LLLWW	2-4	33%	0-2	1-3

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UUOOU	2-3	40%	3-2
LIB OUUUU	1-5	17%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 488 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
LIB	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

NMSU 2–7 LIB LIB leads · 9 games since 2018 · LIB has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	Liberty 30 @ New Mexico State 24	LIB -22.5	NMSU W
Dec 1 2023	New Mexico State 35 @ Liberty 49	LIB -10	LIB W
Sep 9 2023	New Mexico State 17 @ Liberty 33	LIB -9	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−21.1 →−19.1▲ 2.0#131

LIB−5.7 →−8.3▼ 2.6#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NMSU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#116

Offense

Even

#113

#53

Defense

Even

#54

+0.6 #40

Turnovers

◀ NMSU better

0.0 #76

62 plays #122

Pace

LIB faster ▶

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	NMSU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #109	20.7 #47	LIB
Yards / play	5.05 #114	5.50 #72	LIB
PPA / play	+0.05 #108	+0.05 #49	LIB
Success rate	35% #133	40% #49	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	LIB off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #125	22.8 #61	NMSU
Yards / play	5.23 #104	5.48 #68	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.02 #118	+0.04 #41	NMSU
Success rate	40% #103	39% #41	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.2 #125	7.4 #91	10.6 #114	2.0 #132	9.6 #26	11.6 #83
LIB allowed	2.2 #13	7.5 #83	9.7 #37	2.8 #20	8.2 #106	11.0 #56

LIB scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	2.8 #127	3.8 #128	6.7 #128	3.8 #112	6.8 #66	10.7 #97
NMSU allowed	4.0 #46	5.4 #36	9.4 #34	4.8 #63	8.6 #119	13.4 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.