Missouri State @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Wed, Oct 22, 2025, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F10 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Missouri State

3-3 · Power #112

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico State

3-3 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

MOST -2.5

✓ MOST W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

MOST 26–24 NMSU

✓ MOST (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMOST -2.5

CloseMOST -2.5

Total44.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMOST -2.5

no move

CloseMOST -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▲ 7

Close51.5

Up 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MOST -2.5 · unchangedmodel NMSU -1

model NMSU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (210 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMOST -2.5

CloseMOST -2.5

Total44.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MOST as a 2.5-point road favorite at NMSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MOST won 24–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 3.3; 54.4 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WMU @ EMU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	45–21	W	O49.5
Close	OHIO @ BALL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	32–18	W	U57.5
Close	UTSA @ RICE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	27–29	L	O51
Close	OHIO @ CMU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–25	L	O50.5
Loose	FAU @ CLT 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3.5	38–16	W	O45
Loose	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Loose	ULM @ CCU 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3	8–23	L	U46.5
Loose	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread & season form	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Loose	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-4.75	31–37	L	O48
Loose	CLT @ FAU 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3	39–27	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MOST WWWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	1-1
NMSU WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: MOST away, as favorite; NMSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MOST UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
NMSU UOOUO	3-3	50%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MOSTlast 8	3-5 38%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
NMSU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MOST−21.0 →−13.9▲ 7.1#120

NMSU−21.1 →−17.2▲ 3.9#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MOST

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#90

Offense

◀ MOST better

#111

#119

Defense

NMSU better ▶

#55

0.0 #69

Turnovers

NMSU better ▶

+0.7 #30

64 plays #101

Pace

Even

64 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	MOST off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #110	24.0 #67	NMSU
Yards / play	5.73 #70	5.39 #63	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #62	+0.03 #35	NMSU
Success rate	38% #117	40% #54	NMSU

When NMSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NMSU off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #98	29.7 #107	Even
Yards / play	5.07 #112	6.28 #122	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #103	+0.20 #119	Even
Success rate	37% #129	48% #128	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MOST scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	5.7 #76	8.8 #70	14.5 #74	4.5 #103	2.7 #133	7.2 #131
NMSU allowed	3.8 #35	7.3 #79	11.2 #52	4.0 #43	8.8 #120	12.8 #87

NMSU scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	2.7 #130	7.2 #93	9.8 #119	4.0 #112	9.2 #28	13.2 #67
MOST allowed	2.8 #23	13.2 #135	16.0 #109	6.3 #94	7.3 #89	13.7 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.