Liberty @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Wed, Oct 8, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Liberty

1-4 · Power #104

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

1-4 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

LIB -1.5

✓ LIB W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 23–22 UTEP

✓ LIB (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -2.5

CloseLIB -1.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -2.5

1 → UTEP

CloseLIB -1.5

1 pt toward UTEP

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -2.5 · closed LIB -1.5 · moved 1 toward UTEPmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (128 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (220 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -2.5

CloseLIB -1.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 1.5-point road favorite at UTEP, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: LIB won 19–8; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 2.9; 47.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NAVY @ CLT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3	14–0	W	U44.5
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Very close	OHIO @ CMU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	27–25	L	O50.5
Very close	CSU @ NEV 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-2	38–21	W	O45.5
Very close	M-OH @ EMU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	38–14	W	O45.5
Very close	UTSA @ RICE 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	27–29	L	O51
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	41–30	W	O48
Very close	FAU @ CLT 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	38–16	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LLLLW	1-4	20%	1-2	0-3
UTEP LWWLL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB UOUUU	1-4	20%	1-4
UTEP UOUOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 8. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
UTEP	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LIB 3–0 UTEP LIB leads · 3 games since 2023 · LIB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	UTEP 10 @ Liberty 28	LIB -23.5	UTEP W
Nov 25 2023	Liberty 42 @ UTEP 28	LIB -18	UTEP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB−5.7 →−9.0▼ 3.3#100

UTEP−15.9 →−13.9▲ 2.0#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

LIB

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#111

Offense

Even

#123

#81

Defense

UTEP better ▶

#51

−0.4 #99

Turnovers

◀ LIB better

−1.0 #124

64 plays #97

Pace

UTEP faster ▶

67 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	LIB off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #125	26.6 #93	UTEP
Yards / play	5.32 #98	4.96 #39	UTEP
PPA / play	0.00 #122	−0.02 #29	UTEP
Success rate	41% #98	39% #43	UTEP

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	UTEP off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #110	23.2 #66	LIB
Yards / play	5.15 #111	5.86 #103	Even
PPA / play	−0.12 #137	+0.11 #80	LIB
Success rate	32% #135	42% #75	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	2.0 #128	3.4 #129	5.4 #132	3.4 #119	8.2 #47	11.6 #85
UTEP allowed	7.6 #112	6.8 #57	14.4 #93	5.4 #80	6.8 #78	12.2 #84

UTEP scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.2 #106	5.4 #114	9.6 #117	3.4 #119	7.8 #56	11.2 #91
LIB allowed	2.6 #24	9.0 #103	11.6 #61	3.4 #32	8.2 #105	11.6 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.