Liberty @ Old Dominion: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Old Dominion

Weather at kickoff72°F4 mphgusts 10Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Liberty

1-3 · Power #104

final

Final

Old Dominion

2-1 · Power #46

▲ winner

Closing spread

ODU -14.5

✓ LIB W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 19–33 ODU

✓ ODU (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenODU -15.5

CloseODU -14.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenODU -15.5

1 → LIB

CloseODU -14.5

1 pt toward Liberty

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ODU -15.5 · closed ODU -14.5 · moved 1 toward LIBmodel ODU -12

model ODU -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 55% (102 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (204 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenODU -15.5

CloseODU -14.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ODU as a 14.5-point home favorite against LIB, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 21–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 53.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.8 against an average line of 14.6; 65.6 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 7 overs, 5 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Close	NAVY vs CLT 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	51–17	W	O57.5
Close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	44–17	W	O50
Close	JMU vs GAST 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	38–7	W	U53.5
Close	UVA vs STAN 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings	-16.5	48–20	W	O48.5
Close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-13	35–33	L	O48
Close	LIB vs LT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-14.5	56–30	W	O59
Close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Close	LIB vs ODU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	38–10	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-1
ODU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: LIB away, as underdog; ODU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB UOUU	1-3	25%	1-3
ODU UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%
ODU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LIB 1–0 ODU LIB leads · 1 game since 2023 · LIB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Old Dominion 10 @ Liberty 38	LIB -14	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB−5.7 →−7.1▼ 1.4#89

ODU−5.3 →+1.6▲ 6.9#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

LIB

Longer bar = better

ODU

#94

Offense

ODU better ▶

#18

#71

Defense

Even

#61

−0.8 #115

Turnovers

ODU better ▶

+0.3 #56

67 plays #71

Pace

◀ LIB faster

57 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: ODU defense

	LIB off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #116	19.7 #50	ODU
Yards / play	5.65 #82	5.16 #57	ODU
PPA / play	+0.07 #98	−0.05 #24	ODU
Success rate	42% #81	45% #111	LIB

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: ODU offense

	ODU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #35	23.8 #76	ODU
Yards / play	8.14 #4	5.58 #84	ODU
PPA / play	+0.40 #10	+0.10 #79	ODU
Success rate	51% #24	38% #44	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	2.5 #122	4.3 #122	6.8 #126	2.5 #125	10.3 #24	12.8 #79
ODU allowed	2.3 #27	4.3 #25	6.7 #21	6.7 #102	6.3 #75	13.0 #100

ODU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	7.7 #50	9.3 #59	17.0 #58	12.7 #4	8.0 #54	20.7 #11
LIB allowed	3.3 #45	7.8 #84	11.0 #59	4.3 #56	8.5 #109	12.8 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.