Stanford @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Stanford

1-2 · Power #85

final

Final

Virginia

2-1 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

UVA -16.5

✓ UVA W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 18–34 UVA

✓ UVA (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -16.5

CloseUVA -16.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -16.5

no move

CloseUVA -16.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -16.5 · unchangedmodel UVA -14.5

model UVA -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 45% (100 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -16.5

CloseUVA -16.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 16.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 48–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.6 against an average line of 15.5; 57.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	44–17	W	O50
Very close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Very close	DUKE vs NU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-17	38–14	W	O48
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-13	35–33	L	O48
Very close	MINN vs NEV 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & season form	-17	27–0	W	U44
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	38–14	W	U54.5
Very close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Close	TULN vs USM 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-11.75	24–27	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN LLW	1-2	33%	0-2	1-2
UVA WLW	2-1	67%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; UVA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
UVA OOO	3-0	100%	2-1

Went over in Q3. Of 466 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
UVA	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−3.7 →−5.2▼ 1.5#83

UVA−1.6 →+3.9▲ 5.5#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

STAN

Longer bar = better

UVA

#121

Offense

UVA better ▶

#19

#75

Defense

Even

#68

0.0 #70

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #59

63 plays #105

Pace

UVA faster ▶

80 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	STAN off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #119	19.3 #59	UVA
Yards / play	4.50 #128	5.36 #81	UVA
PPA / play	+0.03 #116	+0.10 #84	UVA
Success rate	36% #121	37% #46	UVA

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	44.7 #17	23.3 #78	UVA
Yards / play	6.92 #28	5.16 #67	UVA
PPA / play	+0.45 #8	+0.03 #62	UVA
Success rate	51% #24	43% #91	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	5.3 #88	5.7 #103	11.0 #101	2.3 #118	4.3 #102	6.7 #123
UVA allowed	2.3 #30	4.7 #37	7.0 #32	11.7 #129	0.7 #3	12.3 #86

UVA scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	11.7 #17	19.7 #1	31.3 #4	10.3 #17	3.0 #124	13.3 #69
STAN allowed	4.3 #67	11.7 #121	16.0 #99	4.3 #60	3.0 #25	7.3 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.