Arizona State @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff89°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Arizona State

2-1 · Power #41

▲ winner

Final

Baylor

2-1 · Power #50

final

Closing spread

BAY -1.5

✓ ASU W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 30–31 BAY

✗ BAY (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -2.5

CloseBAY -1.5

Total58.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -2.5

1 → ASU

CloseBAY -1.5

1 pt toward Arizona State

Total

Open58.5

▲ 3

Close61.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -2.5 · closed BAY -1.5 · moved 1 toward ASUmodel BAY -3.5

model BAY -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 47% (150 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (193 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -2.5

CloseBAY -1.5

Total58.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 1.5-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ASU won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 61.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3.7 against an average line of 2.5; 59.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU vs BAY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	35–38	L	O61.5
Very close	TTU vs CIN 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	44–41	P	O60
Very close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	21–38	L	O57.5
Very close	ORE vs BYU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	41–20	W	O58
Very close	BYU vs ECU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	24–27	L	U64
Very close	UNC vs PITT 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	42–24	W	O65.5
Close	ARIZ vs COLO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	7–34	L	U57.5
Close	TTU vs BAY 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	17–45	L	O61
Close	MISS vs MSST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	22–24	L	U63
Close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	—
BAY LWL	1-2	33%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
BAY OOU	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 39 in the 4th quarter and got 28. 46% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
BAY	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU+11.1 →+10.0▼ 1.1#30

BAY+6.9 →+9.6▲ 2.7#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ASU

Longer bar = better

BAY

#58

Offense

Even

#57

#59

Defense

◀ ASU better

#102

0.0 #69

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #62

67 plays #57

Pace

BAY faster ▶

84 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ASU offense

	ASU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #66	30.0 #112	ASU
Yards / play	6.06 #59	5.53 #93	ASU
PPA / play	+0.22 #51	+0.14 #98	ASU
Success rate	46% #55	45% #106	ASU

When BAY has the ball

Even matchup

	BAY off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #39	19.3 #58	Even
Yards / play	6.13 #55	4.62 #44	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #72	−0.01 #45	ASU
Success rate	44% #61	43% #88	BAY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	5.7 #84	7.7 #84	13.3 #85	11.7 #8	5.7 #87	17.3 #35
BAY allowed	8.0 #114	8.0 #82	16.0 #99	4.7 #65	7.0 #78	11.7 #75

BAY scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	5.7 #84	16.3 #11	22.0 #25	3.3 #107	9.3 #36	12.7 #80
ASU allowed	4.3 #67	4.3 #33	8.7 #42	4.3 #60	6.3 #73	10.7 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.