San José State @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Stanford

Weather at kickoff75°F4 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

San José State

1-2 · Power #106

final

Final

Stanford

1-3 · Power #85

▲ winner

Closing spread

STAN -3.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 24–28 STAN

✓ STAN (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSTAN -2.5

CloseSTAN -3.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSTAN -2.5

1 → STAN

CloseSTAN -3.5

1 pt toward Stanford

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened STAN -2.5 · closed STAN -3.5 · moved 1 toward STANmodel STAN -3.5 matches the line

model STAN -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (236 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (81 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSTAN -2.5

CloseSTAN -3.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like STAN as a 3.5-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 5, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: STAN won 30–29; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 49.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 4; 38.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-5	13–9	L	U48
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5
Very close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	IU vs MSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–24	L	U47
Very close	ECU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	27–29	L	O44.25
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	18–17	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0
STAN LLWL	1-3	25%	1-0	—

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; STAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
STAN UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 483 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
STAN	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SJSU 1–0 STAN SJSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SJSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2024	Stanford 31 @ San José State 34	SJSU -2.5	SJSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−6.2 →−7.9▼ 1.7#97

STAN−3.7 →−7.0▼ 3.3#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

SJSU

Longer bar = better

STAN

#98

Offense

◀ SJSU better

#118

#95

Defense

Even

#108

−1.7 #133

Turnovers

STAN better ▶

−0.3 #89

63 plays #109

Pace

Even

62 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SJSU off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #124	29.5 #111	Even
Yards / play	5.72 #75	5.92 #104	SJSU
PPA / play	−0.03 #129	+0.15 #98	STAN
Success rate	45% #65	46% #118	SJSU

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	STAN off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #120	27.3 #97	SJSU
Yards / play	4.71 #126	5.92 #102	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #95	+0.19 #110	Even
Success rate	35% #130	41% #72	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	0.0 #134	9.3 #59	9.3 #120	4.7 #100	3.3 #123	8.0 #119
STAN allowed	8.5 #118	10.5 #118	19.0 #121	5.8 #83	4.8 #47	10.5 #57

STAN scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	5.8 #82	6.0 #104	11.8 #103	3.3 #119	3.3 #124	6.5 #129
SJSU allowed	10.3 #125	8.0 #89	18.3 #120	5.7 #82	3.3 #21	9.0 #41

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.