Washington State @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Colorado State

Weather at kickoff74°F4 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Washington State

2-2 · Power #60

▲ winner

Final

Colorado State

1-2 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

CSU -6.5

✓ WSU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 21–28 CSU

✗ CSU (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCSU -4.5

CloseCSU -6.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCSU -4.5

2 → CSU

CloseCSU -6.5

2 pts toward Colorado State

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CSU -4.5 · closed CSU -6.5 · moved 2 toward CSUmodel CSU -7

model CSU -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (180 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (175 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCSU -4.5

CloseCSU -6.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CSU as a 6.5-point home favorite against WSU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WSU won 20–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 6.7; 44.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	10–16	L	U44
Very close	MTSU vs CSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	23–31	L	O50
Very close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	16–13	L	U50
Close	SJSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	34–6	W	U48.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU LWLL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-2
CSU WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: WSU away, as underdog; CSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2
CSU OUU	1-2	33%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
CSU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WSU 1–0 CSU WSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 2 2023	Washington State 50 @ Colorado State 24	WSU -9.5	WSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU−2.0 →−8.2▼ 6.2#100

CSU−6.9 →−5.8▲ 1.1#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WSU

Longer bar = better

CSU

#118

Offense

CSU better ▶

#100

#108

Defense

CSU better ▶

#70

−1.8 #135

Turnovers

CSU better ▶

−0.3 #98

65 plays #85

Pace

CSU faster ▶

69 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU defense

	WSU off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #109	24.0 #77	CSU
Yards / play	4.56 #131	5.47 #80	CSU
PPA / play	−0.07 #134	+0.05 #64	CSU
Success rate	40% #96	39% #59	CSU

When CSU has the ball

Even matchup

	CSU off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #117	35.3 #127	Even
Yards / play	5.04 #116	5.49 #81	WSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #90	+0.17 #106	Even
Success rate	43% #76	46% #117	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	2.5 #122	7.3 #95	9.8 #115	6.8 #62	4.3 #110	11.0 #95
CSU allowed	4.7 #72	6.7 #66	11.3 #64	7.0 #103	5.7 #62	12.7 #93

CSU scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	2.3 #125	3.3 #131	5.7 #129	7.0 #54	6.7 #78	13.7 #67
WSU allowed	8.8 #119	9.5 #109	18.3 #118	5.8 #83	11.3 #133	17.0 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.