Washington State @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Ole Miss

Weather at kickoff76°F1 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Washington State

3-2 · Power #60

final

Final

Ole Miss

5-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -32.5

✓ WSU W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 12–45 MISS

✓ MISS (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -32.5

CloseMISS -32.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -32.5

no move

CloseMISS -32.5

No change since the open

Total

Open59.5

▼ 1

Close58.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -32.5 · unchangedmodel MISS -32

model MISS -32

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 30.5–34.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 50% (74 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -32.5

CloseMISS -32.5

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 32.5-point home favorite against WSU, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 58.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 59%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 54%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 36.9 against an average line of 31.6; 58.5 points a game (usually 56.7). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA vs MSST 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-34	41–31	L	O53.5
Close	WASH vs ASU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-28	15–7	L	U60
Close	IU vs PUR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total	-28.5	66–0	W	O56.5
Close	MSU vs AKR 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-34.5	52–0	W	U56
Close	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-36	35–3	L	U60.5
Close	USF vs CLT 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-28	54–26	P	O54.5
Loose	LSU vs ARMY 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-33	62–0	W	O60
Loose	MSST vs BGSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-31	45–14	P	O53
Loose	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Loose	TENN vs VAN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-27	48–24	L	O57.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU LWLLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2
MISS WLWWW	4-1	80%	4-0	4-1

Venue/role: WSU away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU UOOOU	3-2	60%	3-2
MISS OOOUU	3-2	60%	5-0

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
MISS	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSU 0–1 MISS MISS leads · 1 game since 2025 · MISS has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU−2.0 →−6.9▼ 4.9#89

MISS+19.8 →+18.7▼ 1.1#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WSU

Longer bar = better

MISS

#113

Offense

MISS better ▶

#19

#93

Defense

MISS better ▶

#58

−1.2 #130

Turnovers

MISS better ▶

−0.6 #112

64 plays #104

Pace

MISS faster ▶

75 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	WSU off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #112	18.8 #33	MISS
Yards / play	4.78 #129	5.16 #52	MISS
PPA / play	−0.02 #129	+0.13 #87	MISS
Success rate	42% #80	41% #60	Even

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	40.6 #15	28.8 #102	MISS
Yards / play	7.06 #17	5.41 #69	MISS
PPA / play	+0.28 #25	+0.11 #79	MISS
Success rate	50% #20	46% #120	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	4.0 #109	7.8 #87	11.8 #104	5.4 #82	3.4 #123	8.8 #117
MISS allowed	4.2 #56	7.4 #77	11.6 #63	2.6 #19	4.6 #32	7.2 #17

MISS scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	5.4 #87	17.2 #1	22.6 #17	6.8 #53	11.2 #7	18.0 #20
WSU allowed	7.6 #114	7.6 #83	15.2 #96	4.6 #60	9.0 #125	13.6 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.