Georgia @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Georgia

4-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Auburn

3-2 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

UGA -4.5

✓ UGA W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 27–23 AUB

✓ UGA (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -3.5

CloseUGA -4.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -3.5

1 → UGA

CloseUGA -4.5

1 pt toward Georgia

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -3.5 · closed UGA -4.5 · moved 1 toward UGAmodel UGA -5

model UGA -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (119 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (196 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -3.5

CloseUGA -4.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 4.5-point road favorite at AUB, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 20–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 4.7; 54.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M @ SC 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	20–44	L	O43.5
Very close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Very close	TENN @ UK 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	33–27	W	O50.5
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	PSU @ WIS 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	28–13	W	U47
Close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	TA&M @ FLA 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	33–20	W	O45.5
Close	ISU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	31–28	L	O42.5
Close	LOU @ UK 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread	-4	41–14	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-1	1-4
AUB WLLLW	2-3	40%	0-2	2-1

Venue/role: UGA away, as favorite; AUB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA OUOUU	2-3	40%	4-1
AUB OUUUU	1-4	20%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
AUB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UGA 64–53 AUB (6 tied) UGA leads · 123 games since 1902 · AUB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Auburn 13 @ Georgia 31	UGA -21.5	AUB W
Sep 30 2023	Georgia 27 @ Auburn 20	UGA -14	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+21.0 →+19.8▼ 1.2#7

AUB+11.0 →+12.6▲ 1.6#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UGA

Longer bar = better

AUB

#37

Offense

◀ UGA better

#76

#41

Defense

Even

#33

−0.4 #104

Turnovers

AUB better ▶

+0.8 #30

73 plays #20

Pace

◀ UGA faster

65 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Even matchup

	UGA off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #43	16.4 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.04 #54	4.93 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #35	+0.05 #51	Even
Success rate	52% #15	36% #22	Even

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	AUB off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #76	18.4 #32	UGA
Yards / play	5.28 #99	4.99 #40	UGA
PPA / play	+0.15 #65	+0.06 #58	Even
Success rate	44% #65	39% #35	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	8.4 #29	9.6 #57	18.0 #41	10.4 #6	5.0 #98	15.4 #42
AUB allowed	3.2 #35	5.2 #34	8.4 #28	3.8 #43	4.2 #30	8.0 #20

AUB scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.2 #68	9.6 #57	15.8 #62	4.8 #93	7.0 #67	11.8 #84
UGA allowed	5.6 #81	5.4 #35	11.0 #58	2.0 #11	4.8 #37	6.8 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.