New Mexico @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Fri, Oct 3, 2025, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at San José State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F4 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

3-1 · Power #81

final

Final

San José State

1-3 · Power #106

▲ winner

Closing spread

SJSU -2.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 28–31 SJSU

✓ SJSU (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -2.5

CloseSJSU -2.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSJSU -2.5

no move

CloseSJSU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SJSU -2.5 · unchangedmodel SJSU -2.5 matches the line

model SJSU -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (246 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -2.5

CloseSJSU -2.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 35–28; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 13.2 against an average line of 2.7; 56.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MTSU vs JXST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	30–45	L	O52
Very close	MTSU vs LT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	31–23	W	P54
Very close	CCU vs GASO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	6–26	L	U59.5
Very close	SJSU vs USU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-4	42–21	W	U65
Very close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Very close	GAST vs APP 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	14–42	L	U62.5
Very close	UVA vs GT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	17–45	L	O56
Very close	USF vs FAU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	14–56	L	O61
Very close	TLSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	10–42	L	U56.5
Close	GAST vs GASO 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	41–33	W	O66.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WLWW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0
SJSU LWLW	2-2	50%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: UNM away, as underdog; SJSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OUUO	2-2	50%	3-1
SJSU UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 354 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
SJSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNM 0–1 SJSU SJSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SJSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	San José State 52 @ New Mexico 24	SJSU -6.5	SJSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−13.7 →−6.9▲ 6.8#89

SJSU−6.2 →−7.3▼ 1.1#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

UNM

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#78

Offense

Even

#79

#66

Defense

◀ UNM better

#103

−1.0 #126

Turnovers

Even

−1.3 #129

67 plays #57

Pace

◀ UNM faster

65 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #67	28.0 #101	UNM
Yards / play	5.81 #74	6.18 #117	UNM
PPA / play	+0.10 #89	+0.22 #118	UNM
Success rate	42% #81	41% #74	Even

When SJSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SJSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #115	21.5 #57	UNM
Yards / play	6.15 #52	5.71 #90	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #93	+0.03 #48	UNM
Success rate	45% #56	41% #69	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	5.3 #90	7.8 #87	13.0 #90	5.0 #90	12.5 #5	17.5 #27
SJSU allowed	9.5 #124	7.8 #89	17.3 #114	4.3 #56	6.5 #74	10.8 #60

SJSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	2.5 #124	9.5 #56	12.0 #101	3.5 #114	4.8 #106	8.3 #120
UNM allowed	5.3 #82	9.3 #106	14.5 #99	3.0 #33	4.0 #26	7.0 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.