Air Force @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Navy

Weather at kickoff71°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Air Force

1-3 · Power #95

final

Final

Navy

4-0 · Power #64

▲ winner

Closing spread

NAVY -13.5

✓ AFA W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 22–36 NAVY

✓ NAVY (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -12.5

CloseNAVY -13.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -12.5

1 → NAVY

CloseNAVY -13.5

1 pt toward Navy

Total

Open49.5

▲ 2

Close51.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -12.5 · closed NAVY -13.5 · moved 1 toward NAVYmodel NAVY -16.5

model NAVY -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 49% (103 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (184 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -12.5

CloseNAVY -13.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 13.5-point home favorite against AFA, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.9 against an average line of 14; 59.3 points a game (usually 54). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	44–17	W	O50
Very close	JMU vs GASO 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-15	35–10	W	U54.5
Very close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Close	TROY vs UL 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-15.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Close	USA vs UL 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-11.5	20–33	L	U55
Close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Close	LIB vs ODU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	38–10	W	U58.5
Close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	OHIO vs CMU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	34–20	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA WLLL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-1
NAVY WLWL	2-2	50%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: AFA away, as underdog; NAVY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA OOOO	4-0	100%	1-3
NAVY OOOU	3-1	75%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 528 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
NAVY	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

AFA 1–1 NAVY Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · NAVY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Navy 34 @ Air Force 7	NAVY -9.5	NAVY W
Oct 21 2023	Air Force 17 @ Navy 6	AFA -11	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−8.0 →−9.1▼ 1.1#100

NAVY+1.2 →+2.7▲ 1.5#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

AFA

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#21

Offense

Even

#12

#133

Defense

NAVY better ▶

#32

−0.5 #104

Turnovers

NAVY better ▶

+0.3 #54

67 plays #68

Pace

Even

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Even matchup

	AFA off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #27	16.8 #30	Even
Yards / play	7.06 #18	4.95 #43	AFA
PPA / play	+0.33 #15	−0.02 #29	Even
Success rate	51% #22	36% #25	Even

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #24	38.8 #132	NAVY
Yards / play	7.36 #10	7.35 #136	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.39 #9	+0.44 #137	NAVY
Success rate	57% #3	48% #127	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	7.0 #55	7.8 #89	14.8 #79	9.3 #25	13.8 #2	23.0 #3
NAVY allowed	5.3 #81	5.0 #30	10.3 #53	2.5 #23	4.0 #26	6.5 #15

NAVY scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	8.8 #31	13.0 #23	21.8 #24	7.8 #44	8.8 #43	16.5 #36
AFA allowed	8.8 #120	6.0 #50	14.8 #97	11.3 #135	12.8 #135	24.0 #135

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.