Boise State @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff86°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Boise State

3-1 · Power #55

final

Final

Notre Dame

2-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -21.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

63.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 19–40 ND

✓ ND (94%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -17.5

CloseND -21.5

Total64.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -17.5

4 → ND

CloseND -21.5

4 pts toward Notre Dame

Total

Open64.5

▼ 1

Close63.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -17.5 · closed ND -21.5 · moved 4 toward NDmodel ND -21.5 matches the line

model ND -21.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 46% (72 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 42% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -17.5

CloseND -21.5

Total64.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 21.5-point home favorite against BOIS, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 28–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 63.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.9 against an average line of 20.8; 56.9 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORE vs WSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-19.5	38–24	L	O60.5
Close	ORE vs ILL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-22.5	38–9	W	U54
Close	TENN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	45–14	W	P59
Close	ALA vs MSST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-21.25	30–6	W	U61.5
Close	CLEM vs STAN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	40–14	W	U58
Loose	MIA vs DUKE 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-21	53–31	W	O55.5
Loose	LSU vs USA 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & total	-21	42–10	W	U64.5
Loose	SMU vs BC 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread	-19	38–28	L	O54
Loose	LSU vs ARK 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-17.5	34–31	L	O55
Loose	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-18.5	41–3	W	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	—
ND LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: BOIS away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS UOOO	3-1	75%	3-1
ND OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 44% of games with totals 59.5–67.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
ND	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS+6.0 →+5.4▼ 0.6#44

ND+21.6 →+21.7▲ 0.1#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

BOIS

Longer bar = better

#26

Offense

ND better ▶

#12

#61

Defense

◀ BOIS better

#107

+0.8 #33

Turnovers

◀ BOIS better

+0.3 #53

74 plays #14

Pace

◀ BOIS faster

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	38.5 #22	27.8 #100	BOIS
Yards / play	7.07 #17	5.88 #102	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.30 #22	+0.22 #116	BOIS
Success rate	47% #42	45% #108	BOIS

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #11	24.8 #77	ND
Yards / play	7.27 #13	5.39 #69	ND
PPA / play	+0.36 #12	+0.11 #79	ND
Success rate	53% #12	35% #20	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	13.8 #5	6.8 #101	20.5 #32	7.5 #50	10.5 #18	18.0 #21
ND allowed	4.3 #61	15.3 #136	19.5 #127	2.5 #25	5.8 #62	8.3 #32

ND scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	10.5 #14	16.5 #5	27.0 #5	8.8 #33	8.3 #47	17.0 #32
BOIS allowed	1.8 #15	7.8 #89	9.5 #47	7.8 #118	7.5 #94	15.3 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.