New Mexico @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 9:45 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Boise State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

3-2 · Power #81

final

Final

Boise State

3-2 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -15.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 21–37 BOIS

✓ BOIS (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -16.5

CloseBOIS -15.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -16.5

1 → UNM

CloseBOIS -15.5

1 pt toward New Mexico

Total

Open60.5

▼ 3

Close57.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -16.5 · closed BOIS -15.5 · moved 1 toward UNMmodel BOIS -15.5 matches the line

model BOIS -15.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 45% (95 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (234 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -16.5

CloseBOIS -15.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 15.5-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 41–25; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 57.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 15.7; 56.8 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs COLO 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	35–21	W	U57
Very close	OKST vs BYU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	40–34	L	O55
Close	SC vs JXST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-15.5	38–28	L	O55
Close	HOU vs USF 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & team ratings	-17.5	42–27	L	O59
Close	UNLV vs NEV 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	38–14	W	U54.5
Close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	45–10	W	U61
Close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Close	WSU vs STAN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-13.5	7–10	L	U58
Close	BOIS vs APP 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	47–14	W	O59.5
Close	CLEM vs SYR 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	21–34	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WLWWL	3-2	60%	2-1	2-1
BOIS LWWWW	4-1	80%	2-0	3-1

Venue/role: UNM away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OUUOO	3-2	60%	3-2
BOIS UOOOU	3-2	60%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 418 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
BOIS	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNM 0–1 BOIS BOIS leads · 1 game since 2023 · BOIS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	New Mexico 14 @ Boise State 42	BOIS -27.5	BOIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−13.7 →−6.4▲ 7.3#87

BOIS+6.0 →+5.4▼ 0.6#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UNM

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#61

Offense

Even

#48

#89

Defense

BOIS better ▶

#69

−1.4 #134

Turnovers

BOIS better ▶

−0.2 #91

67 plays #59

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

73 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Even matchup

	UNM off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #57	25.4 #79	UNM
Yards / play	5.90 #61	5.71 #92	UNM
PPA / play	+0.12 #78	+0.11 #81	Even
Success rate	45% #48	37% #23	BOIS

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #50	24.2 #73	BOIS
Yards / play	6.56 #28	6.03 #111	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	+0.11 #80	BOIS
Success rate	45% #55	43% #92	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	4.2 #106	9.6 #55	13.8 #83	4.0 #104	12.2 #5	16.2 #33
BOIS allowed	2.6 #25	7.8 #86	10.4 #48	7.6 #116	7.4 #90	15.0 #118

BOIS scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	11.0 #9	6.8 #103	17.8 #46	6.0 #67	8.4 #45	14.4 #52
UNM allowed	5.6 #80	10.2 #115	15.8 #107	5.2 #78	3.2 #13	8.4 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.