UNLV @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Boise State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F2 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

UNLV

6-0 · Power #74

final

Final

Boise State

4-2 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -13.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 87 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 24–38 BOIS

✓ BOIS (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -10.5

CloseBOIS -13.5

Total63.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -10.5

3 → BOIS

CloseBOIS -13.5

3 pts toward Boise State

Total

Open63.5

▼ 2

Close61.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -10.5 · closed BOIS -13.5 · moved 3 toward BOISmodel BOIS -12.5

model BOIS -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 49% (111 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (191 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -10.5

CloseBOIS -13.5

Total63.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 13.5-point home favorite against UNLV, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 56–31; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 87 points went over 61.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 12.7; 65.2 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	43–37	L	O56
Very close	MIA vs DUKE 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	21–45	L	O59
Close	FRES vs UNLV 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	31–24	L	U56
Close	APP vs GASO 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	55–27	W	O63
Close	KSU vs KU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-12	47–27	W	O62
Close	HOU vs TLSA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	30–37	L	P67
Close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Close	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-15.5	47–7	W	O53
Close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Close	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	27–20	L	U62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV WWWWL	4-2	67%	3-0	1-0
BOIS WWWWW	5-1	83%	3-0	4-1

Venue/role: UNLV away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV UUOUO	3-3	50%	6-0
BOIS OOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2

Went over in Q3. Of 224 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
BOIS	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UNLV 0–3 BOIS BOIS leads · 3 games since 2023 · BOIS has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 6 2024	UNLV 7 @ Boise State 21	BOIS -3.5	BOIS W
Oct 25 2024	Boise State 29 @ UNLV 24	BOIS -3.5	BOIS W
Dec 2 2023	Boise State 44 @ UNLV 20	BOIS -2	BOIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV+5.4 →−1.5▼ 6.9#73

BOIS+6.0 →+6.6▲ 0.6#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UNLV

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#20

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#50

#107

Defense

BOIS better ▶

#53

+1.5 #2

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

+0.3 #52

64 plays #111

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

75 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	38.2 #19	25.3 #76	UNLV
Yards / play	6.95 #16	5.49 #70	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.27 #23	+0.05 #50	UNLV
Success rate	49% #22	35% #14	Even

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #43	29.7 #113	BOIS
Yards / play	6.19 #43	6.25 #121	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.18 #48	+0.09 #67	Even
Success rate	44% #64	47% #126	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	8.0 #36	10.0 #51	18.0 #40	7.8 #42	12.3 #4	20.2 #9
BOIS allowed	2.2 #14	8.8 #99	11.0 #54	6.8 #105	7.5 #94	14.3 #110

BOIS scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	10.8 #9	6.8 #98	17.7 #43	5.5 #78	10.5 #15	16.0 #32
UNLV allowed	6.8 #103	5.7 #40	12.5 #73	7.5 #116	9.7 #131	17.2 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.