New Mexico @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at UNLV · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New Mexico

5-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Final

UNLV

6-1 · Power #74

final

Closing spread

UNLV -4.5

✓ UNM W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 29–34 UNLV

✗ UNLV (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -5.5

CloseUNLV -4.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -5.5

1 → UNM

CloseUNLV -4.5

1 pt toward New Mexico

Total

Open62.5

▼ 2

Close60.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -5.5 · closed UNLV -4.5 · moved 1 toward UNMmodel UNLV -7

model UNLV -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (197 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (261 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -5.5

CloseUNLV -4.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 4.5-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 40–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 4.7; 56.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	24–27	L	U59
Very close	GASO vs ODU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-5.5	17–20	L	U61.5
Close	UNLV vs CSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	25–23	L	U60
Close	WKU vs NMSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-5	29–38	L	O54.5
Close	USA vs GASO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	30–34	L	O60
Close	JXST vs WKU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	52–12	W	O58.5
Close	GASO vs APP 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	29–20	W	U60.5
Close	FAU vs RICE 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-5	17–14	L	U54.5
Close	CCU vs ODU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	45–37	W	O51.5
Close	UNT vs UTSA 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-4	55–17	W	O64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WLLLW	4-4	50%	2-2	2-2
UNLV WWWLL	4-3	57%	1-2	3-2

Venue/role: UNM away, as underdog; UNLV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OOOUU	4-4	50%	5-3
UNLV UOUOO	4-3	57%	6-1

Went over in Q3. Of 265 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
UNLV	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNM 0–1 UNLV UNLV leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNLV has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	UNLV 56 @ New Mexico 14	UNLV -14.5	UNLV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−13.7 →−5.6▲ 8.1#85

UNLV+5.4 →−2.1▼ 7.5#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UNM

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#71

Offense

UNLV better ▶

#20

#80

Defense

◀ UNM better

#121

−1.4 #135

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+1.4 #3

65 plays #97

Pace

Even

65 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #69	33.4 #125	UNM
Yards / play	5.73 #69	6.67 #135	UNM
PPA / play	+0.10 #87	+0.15 #96	Even
Success rate	44% #60	47% #128	UNM

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	37.1 #17	24.8 #76	UNLV
Yards / play	6.92 #14	5.66 #83	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.25 #23	+0.13 #85	UNLV
Success rate	48% #24	42% #75	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	4.4 #108	11.0 #31	15.4 #63	4.1 #116	9.5 #23	13.6 #62
UNLV allowed	7.9 #116	6.9 #64	14.7 #92	9.4 #129	9.3 #129	18.7 #131

UNLV scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	7.3 #49	11.6 #25	18.9 #29	6.7 #60	11.6 #3	18.3 #13
UNM allowed	5.1 #63	9.3 #103	14.4 #87	4.5 #50	5.9 #56	10.4 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.