UNLV @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 9:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F7 mphgusts 20DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UNLV

6-2 · Power #74

▲ winner

Final

Colorado State

2-6 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

UNLV -4.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 32–28 CSU

✓ UNLV (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -5.5

CloseUNLV -4.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -5.5

1 → CSU

CloseUNLV -4.5

1 pt toward Colorado State

Total

Open61.5

no move

Close61.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -5.5 · closed UNLV -4.5 · moved 1 toward CSUmodel UNLV -2

model UNLV -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 49% (142 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (276 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -5.5

CloseUNLV -4.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 4.5-point road favorite at CSU, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 42–10; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 61.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.4 against an average line of 3.6; 59.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTSA @ CSU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5	17–16	L	U58.5
Very close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5
Very close	WMU @ CMU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6	14–16	L	U56
Very close	USU @ SDSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.25	32–24	W	U56.5
Very close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5
Very close	COLO @ ASU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	27–24	P	U58.5
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5
Very close	GASO @ BALL 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-6	40–3	W	U61
Close	UCF @ CIN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	28–26	L	U60
Close	MTSU @ LT 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	24–40	L	O63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV WWLLL	4-4	50%	3-1	3-3
CSU LLWLL	3-5	38%	2-3	3-2

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; CSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OUOOO	5-3	63%	6-2
CSU UOOUU	3-5	38%	2-6

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 47% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
CSU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNLV 1–0 CSU UNLV leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNLV has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Colorado State 23 @ UNLV 25	UNLV -6.5	CSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV+5.4 →−4.4▼ 9.8#81

CSU−6.9 →−10.3▼ 3.4#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UNLV

Longer bar = better

CSU

#23

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#98

#125

Defense

CSU better ▶

#100

+1.0 #11

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−0.1 #88

66 plays #78

Pace

◀ UNLV faster

64 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.9 #17	27.1 #91	UNLV
Yards / play	6.82 #16	6.12 #115	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.22 #28	+0.15 #99	UNLV
Success rate	47% #31	44% #93	UNLV

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	19.1 #124	34.3 #127	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #106	6.98 #134	CSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #88	+0.20 #117	CSU
Success rate	42% #74	46% #122	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	6.4 #61	12.8 #6	19.1 #24	6.8 #55	11.0 #3	17.8 #16
CSU allowed	5.6 #73	10.8 #124	16.4 #111	6.9 #105	3.9 #15	10.8 #49

CSU scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	3.9 #117	5.1 #118	9.0 #122	2.6 #133	7.5 #53	10.1 #107
UNLV allowed	7.8 #117	9.0 #98	16.8 #119	8.6 #126	8.9 #124	17.5 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.