San Diego State @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 11:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

7-1 · Power #68

final

Final

Hawai'i

6-3 · Power #90

▲ winner

Closing spread

SDSU -6.5

✓ HAW W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 26–20 HAW

✗ SDSU (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -6.5

CloseSDSU -6.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSDSU -6.5

no move

CloseSDSU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▼ 3

Close47.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -6.5 · unchangedmodel SDSU -7

model SDSU -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (159 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -6.5

CloseSDSU -6.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: HAW won 38–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.2 against an average line of 7.2; 42.4 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Very close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Very close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Very close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	19–24	L	P43
Very close	TOL @ BGSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	32–31	L	O49.5
Very close	SJSU @ FRES 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	10–17	L	U47
Very close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9	31–3	W	U52
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	USA @ UL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-8.5	20–17	L	U47.25
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	37–3	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU WWWWW	6-1	86%	3-1	5-0
HAW WWWWL	6-3	67%	4-1	4-2

Venue/role: SDSU away, as favorite; HAW home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU UOOUU	3-5	38%	7-1
HAW UOOUO	4-5	44%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 4 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	5-5 50%
HAW	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SDSU 2–0 HAW SDSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · SDSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Hawai'i 24 @ San Diego State 27	SDSU -1.5	SDSU W
Oct 14 2023	San Diego State 41 @ Hawai'i 34	SDSU -6.5	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−12.0 →+1.7▲ 13.7#62

HAW−11.4 →−7.9▲ 3.5#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

SDSU

Longer bar = better

HAW

#63

Offense

◀ SDSU better

#78

Defense

◀ SDSU better

#77

+0.8 #22

Turnovers

◀ SDSU better

−0.8 #120

64 plays #105

Pace

HAW faster ▶

74 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #65	25.7 #78	Even
Yards / play	5.71 #68	5.83 #99	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #68	+0.11 #81	Even
Success rate	44% #50	40% #48	Even

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	HAW off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #59	10.0 #2	SDSU
Yards / play	5.56 #80	3.83 #2	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.10 #78	−0.19 #2	SDSU
Success rate	41% #95	29% #1	SDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	7.0 #48	10.0 #45	17.0 #45	5.9 #70	6.0 #83	11.9 #84
HAW allowed	4.9 #54	7.1 #67	12.0 #60	5.6 #73	8.1 #112	13.7 #100

HAW scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	6.1 #65	8.2 #77	14.3 #75	5.4 #81	9.9 #14	15.3 #33
SDSU allowed	2.1 #7	2.8 #5	4.9 #5	1.3 #2	3.9 #15	5.1 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.