Air Force @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 6:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at San José State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Air Force

2-6 · Power #95

▲ winner

Final

San José State

3-5 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

SJSU -6.5

✓ AFA W

Total

68.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 29–36 SJSU

✗ SJSU (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -3.5

CloseSJSU -6.5

Total65.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSJSU -3.5

3 → SJSU

CloseSJSU -6.5

3 pts toward San José State

Total

Open65.5

▲ 3

Close68.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SJSU -3.5 · closed SJSU -6.5 · moved 3 toward SJSUmodel SJSU -6

model SJSU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (219 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (219 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -3.5

CloseSJSU -6.5

Total65.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 6.5-point home favorite against AFA, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 26–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 68.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 6.6; 60.4 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTSA vs UAB 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-9	41–20	W	U67
Close	ARIZ vs ASU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-4	38–35	L	O66.5
Close	EMU vs NIU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	10–39	L	U64.25
Close	KENT vs BALL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-7	20–27	L	U61.75
Close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Close	APP vs GASO 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	55–27	W	O63
Close	UTSA vs UNT 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	31–27	L	U73
Close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Close	GAST vs APP 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	14–42	L	U62.5
Close	USF vs TEM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	27–23	L	U69.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA LWWLL	3-5	38%	2-1	2-2
SJSU WWLLW	4-4	50%	2-2	2-3

Venue/role: AFA away, as underdog; SJSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA OOOUU	6-2	75%	2-6
SJSU OOOUO	5-3	63%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 47 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 45% of games with totals 64.5–72.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
SJSU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

AFA 6–3 SJSU AFA leads · 9 games since 1996 · AFA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	San José State 17 @ Air Force 7	AFA -1.5	SJSU W
Sep 22 2023	Air Force 45 @ San José State 20	AFA -6.5	AFA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−8.0 →−8.9▼ 0.9#102

SJSU−6.2 →−6.2–#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

AFA

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#20

Offense

◀ AFA better

#49

#134

Defense

SJSU better ▶

#110

−0.5 #109

Turnovers

SJSU better ▶

−0.1 #83

68 plays #48

Pace

Even

69 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #34	30.4 #110	AFA
Yards / play	6.67 #23	6.36 #127	AFA
PPA / play	+0.29 #12	+0.19 #112	AFA
Success rate	50% #11	43% #91	AFA

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #76	35.1 #130	SJSU
Yards / play	6.54 #25	7.53 #137	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.18 #42	+0.41 #137	SJSU
Success rate	44% #51	49% #132	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	6.0 #71	6.4 #102	12.4 #91	8.3 #24	13.3 #1	21.5 #1
SJSU allowed	7.4 #109	8.1 #85	15.5 #100	5.6 #75	9.3 #127	14.9 #116

SJSU scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	5.1 #89	12.0 #12	17.1 #43	5.6 #76	4.0 #125	9.6 #114
AFA allowed	7.4 #109	5.9 #36	13.3 #78	9.4 #129	12.5 #135	21.9 #136

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.