Texas State @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 5:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Texas State

3-5 · Power #71

final

Final

Louisiana

3-6 · Power #114

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -3.5

✓ UL W

Total

63.5

▲ Over · 81 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 32–28 UL

✗ TXST (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -2.5

CloseTXST -3.5

Total64.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -2.5

1 → TXST

CloseTXST -3.5

1 pt toward Texas State

Total

Open64.5

▼ 1

Close63.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -2.5 · closed TXST -3.5 · moved 1 toward TXSTmodel TXST -6

model TXST -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (201 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (100 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -2.5

CloseTXST -3.5

Total64.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 3.5-point road favorite at UL, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 42–39 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 63.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 4; 66.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ OHIO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	17–24	L	U65.5
Very close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5
Very close	WKU @ LT 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-6	35–28	W	O59
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Very close	MTSU @ LT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	24–40	L	O63.5
Very close	BOIS @ USU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-5	45–10	W	U63.5
Very close	ODU @ ARST 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	40–32	W	O58.5
Very close	BOIS @ CSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	30–31	L	O60
Close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST LLLLL	2-6	25%	1-3	1-4
UL WWLLW	4-5	44%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: TXST away, as favorite; UL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST UUOOO	5-3	63%	3-5
UL OUUOO	5-4	56%	3-6

Went over in Q4. Of 158 earlier overs in games with totals 59.5–67.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
UL	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TXST 0–13 UL UL leads · 13 games since 2013 · UL has won the last 13 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 29 2024	Louisiana 23 @ Texas State 17	TXST -3.5	UL W
Oct 7 2023	Texas State 30 @ Louisiana 34	UL -1	UL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST+1.6 →−3.4▼ 5.0#77

UL−2.6 →−10.9▼ 8.3#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TXST

Longer bar = better

#38

Offense

◀ TXST better

#98

#116

Defense

UL better ▶

#100

−0.9 #126

Turnovers

UL better ▶

−0.1 #82

73 plays #15

Pace

◀ TXST faster

63 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #32	29.3 #102	TXST
Yards / play	6.45 #29	5.72 #86	TXST
PPA / play	+0.22 #28	+0.13 #91	TXST
Success rate	44% #64	46% #122	TXST

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #91	33.9 #126	UL
Yards / play	5.47 #90	5.99 #106	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	+0.21 #121	Even
Success rate	40% #110	45% #109	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	8.5 #21	10.5 #36	19.0 #24	5.5 #79	8.4 #37	13.9 #56
UL allowed	4.2 #46	11.9 #133	16.1 #107	6.1 #90	6.0 #54	12.1 #75

UL scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	4.9 #95	9.4 #55	14.3 #74	3.2 #126	5.3 #99	8.6 #125
TXST allowed	5.5 #69	9.8 #110	15.3 #98	7.8 #117	8.4 #115	16.1 #127

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.