Louisiana @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Thu, Nov 20, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

4-6 · Power #114

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas State

5-5 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

ARST -2.5

✓ UL W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 26–28 ARST

✗ ARST (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -3.5

CloseARST -2.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARST -3.5

1 → UL

CloseARST -2.5

1 pt toward Louisiana

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARST -3.5 · closed ARST -2.5 · moved 1 toward ULmodel ARST -2

model ARST -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 52% (306 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (109 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -3.5

CloseARST -2.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARST as a 2.5-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 34–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 3; 57.9 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	EMU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-1	20–37	L	O53.5
Very close	LIB vs DEL 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	59–30	W	O52.5
Very close	SJSU vs HAW 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	45–38	W	O55.5
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Very close	USA vs UL 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	22–31	L	O52.5
Very close	TLSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	10–42	L	U56.5
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	ARST vs ULM 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	28–21	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL WLLWW	5-5	50%	2-3	4-3
ARST WWWWW	7-3	70%	5-0	2-1

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; ARST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UUOOO	6-4	60%	4-6
ARST UUUUU	2-8	20%	5-5

Went over in Q3. Of 557 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
ARST	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UL 1–1 ARST Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · UL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Arkansas State 19 @ Louisiana 55	UL -14.5	UL W
Nov 4 2023	Louisiana 17 @ Arkansas State 37	UL -7	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−2.6 →−10.6▼ 8.0#108

ARST−9.7 →−11.2▼ 1.5#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

ARST

#90

Offense

Even

#98

#114

Defense

Even

#104

−0.1 #89

Turnovers

◀ UL better

−0.6 #117

64 plays #103

Pace

ARST faster ▶

74 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #74	26.5 #85	Even
Yards / play	5.40 #90	6.24 #122	UL
PPA / play	+0.08 #88	+0.16 #100	Even
Success rate	40% #106	44% #109	Even

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #101	30.3 #111	Even
Yards / play	5.09 #113	6.01 #113	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #101	+0.16 #103	Even
Success rate	43% #75	47% #129	ARST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UL scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.1 #86	11.3 #20	16.4 #44	2.9 #131	5.5 #98	8.4 #126
ARST allowed	10.3 #135	5.2 #21	15.5 #102	3.8 #28	7.2 #92	11.0 #54

ARST scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	6.2 #61	6.1 #108	12.3 #92	3.0 #130	8.0 #38	11.0 #93
UL allowed	4.8 #57	11.4 #131	16.2 #108	5.8 #86	7.3 #94	13.1 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.