Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Tue, Nov 18, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff41°F10 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

6-4 · Power #80

▲ winner

Final

Northern Illinois

3-7 · Power #124

final

Closing spread

WMU -6.5

✓ WMU W

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 21–15 NIU

✓ WMU (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -6.5

CloseWMU -6.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -6.5

no move

CloseWMU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open38.5

no move

Close38.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -6.5 · unchangedmodel WMU -5

model WMU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (162 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -6.5

CloseWMU -6.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 6.5-point road favorite at NIU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 35–19; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 38.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 50%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 11.4 against an average line of 7.2; 51.4 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 8 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH @ NIU 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	25–14	W	O38.5
Very close	SDSU @ NEV 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	44–10	W	O42.5
Very close	FRES @ AFA 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	28–36	L	O40.5
Very close	WYO @ CSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-8.5	14–13	L	U42.5
Very close	RUTG @ IU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	31–14	W	O39.5
Very close	JXST @ SHSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	35–28	W	O36
Very close	WYO @ NEV 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11	42–6	W	O41.75
Close	FIU @ KENN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-9	26–27	L	O42
Close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Close	ISU @ BYU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & rest	-7.5	45–13	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WWLLW	7-3	70%	2-2	4-1
NIU LLWLW	3-7	30%	1-3	1-5

Venue/role: WMU away, as favorite; NIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU UUOOU	4-6	40%	6-4
NIU UOUOO	3-7	30%	3-7

Went over in Q4. Of 106 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–42.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
NIU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WMU 0–2 NIU NIU leads · 2 games since 2023 · NIU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 6 2024	Northern Illinois 42 @ Western Michigan 28	NIU -2.5	NIU W
Nov 14 2023	Western Michigan 0 @ Northern Illinois 24	NIU -4.5	NIU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−10.1 →−6.0▲ 4.1#91

NIU−5.3 →−13.6▼ 8.3#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

WMU

Longer bar = better

NIU

#105

Offense

◀ WMU better

#134

#24

Defense

◀ WMU better

#65

+0.2 #54

Turnovers

◀ WMU better

0.0 #71

67 plays #70

Pace

◀ WMU faster

62 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	WMU off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #111	22.2 #50	NIU
Yards / play	4.82 #125	5.16 #42	NIU
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	+0.14 #93	Even
Success rate	42% #77	42% #75	Even

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: WMU defense

	NIU off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #134	18.4 #18	WMU
Yards / play	4.60 #132	4.87 #21	WMU
PPA / play	−0.07 #131	0.00 #21	WMU
Success rate	33% #137	39% #34	WMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	1.3 #135	8.7 #66	10.0 #115	5.7 #73	5.8 #87	11.5 #87
NIU allowed	3.4 #30	6.8 #54	10.2 #31	4.5 #43	7.5 #102	12.0 #69

NIU scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	4.3 #109	4.5 #125	8.8 #121	4.0 #111	2.7 #133	6.7 #132
WMU allowed	3.7 #36	4.4 #10	8.1 #14	3.6 #24	6.1 #57	9.7 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.