Ohio @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Tue, Nov 11, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Western Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff33°F12 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ohio

6-3 · Power #78

final

Final

Western Michigan

5-4 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

WMU -1.5

✓ WMU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 22–23 WMU

✓ WMU (52%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -1.5

CloseWMU -1.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -1.5

3 → WMU

CloseWMU -1.5

3 pts toward Western Michigan

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -1.5 · closed WMU -1.5 · moved 3 toward WMUmodel OHIO -2

model OHIO -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (181 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (222 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -1.5

CloseWMU -1.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 1.5-point home favorite against OHIO, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 17–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 2.5; 55.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	NU vs PUR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	23–15	W	U47.5
Very close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	BC vs SYR 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	37–31	W	O52
Very close	LT vs WKU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & total	-5	27–28	L	O49.5
Close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	14–42	L	O48
Close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-1	35–31	W	O51
Close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Close	WYO vs APP 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3	22–19	P	U45
Close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.75	31–27	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO WLWLW	6-3	67%	2-2	3-0
WMU WWWLL	6-3	67%	4-1	3-1

Venue/role: OHIO away, as underdog; WMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO OUOUU	4-5	44%	6-3
WMU OUUOO	4-5	44%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
WMU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OHIO 1–0 WMU OHIO leads · 1 game since 2023 · OHIO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Western Michigan 17 @ Ohio 20	OHIO -16.5	WMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO−3.2 →−2.6▲ 0.6#77

WMU−10.1 →−6.6▲ 3.5#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

OHIO

Longer bar = better

WMU

#49

Offense

◀ OHIO better

#105

#83

Defense

WMU better ▶

#25

−0.1 #80

Turnovers

WMU better ▶

+0.1 #63

68 plays #49

Pace

Even

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: WMU defense

	OHIO off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #66	19.0 #19	WMU
Yards / play	6.24 #33	4.86 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #46	0.00 #26	Even
Success rate	44% #50	39% #33	Even

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	WMU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #104	24.2 #69	OHIO
Yards / play	4.71 #128	6.17 #120	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #110	+0.09 #67	OHIO
Success rate	42% #79	42% #76	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	6.1 #66	8.8 #67	14.9 #70	6.8 #54	7.0 #58	13.8 #57
WMU allowed	3.3 #28	4.9 #13	8.2 #15	4.0 #32	6.1 #59	10.1 #44

WMU scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	1.1 #135	9.7 #51	10.8 #110	5.6 #76	5.7 #89	11.2 #89
OHIO allowed	6.1 #90	6.1 #40	12.2 #66	3.6 #24	8.4 #117	12.0 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.