Massachusetts @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Tue, Nov 18, 2025, 7:15 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Ohio · Conference game

Weather at kickoff41°F3 mphgusts 10Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Massachusetts

0-10 · Power #136

final

Final

Ohio

6-4 · Power #78

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -34.5

✓ MASS W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 10–44 OHIO

✓ OHIO (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -31.5

CloseOHIO -34.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -31.5

3 → OHIO

CloseOHIO -34.5

3 pts toward Ohio

Total

Open51.5

▲ 2

Close53.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -31.5 · closed OHIO -34.5 · moved 3 toward OHIOmodel OHIO -31

model OHIO -31

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 33.5–35.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 52% (51 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (233 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -31.5

CloseOHIO -34.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like OHIO as a 34.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 42–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 8 similar games. 56 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 8.

Favorite won

8 of 8100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 59%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 35.6 against an average line of 29.7; 53.9 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	M-OH vs KENT 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & rest	-30.5	34–7	L	U47.5
Loose	TXST vs USM 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & rest	-27.5	58–3	W	O56.5
Loose	IOWA vs MASS 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-35.5	47–7	W	O44.5
Loose	VAN vs BALL 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-27.5	24–14	L	U57.5
Loose	NEB vs AKR 2025 · Week 2 · loose	-33.75	68–0	W	O47.5
Loose	MEM vs MTSU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-27	24–7	L	U61.5
Loose	ECU vs CLT 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & total	-28	48–22	L	O56.5
Loose	FRES vs HAW 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & rest	-27.5	55–13	W	O62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LWLLL	2-8	20%	1-4	2-7
OHIO LWLWL	6-4	60%	4-1	3-3

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS UOOOO	7-3	70%	0-10
OHIO UOUUU	4-6	40%	6-4

Went over in Q4. Of 563 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	0-10 0%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%
OHIO	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MASS 0–5 OHIO OHIO leads · 5 games since 2012 · OHIO has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−14.6 →−28.7▼ 14.1#136

OHIO−3.2 →−3.0▲ 0.2#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MASS

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#136

Offense

OHIO better ▶

#54

#131

Defense

OHIO better ▶

#82

−0.4 #102

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #89

64 plays #109

Pace

OHIO faster ▶

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	MASS off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	10.5 #137	23.5 #60	OHIO
Yards / play	3.87 #137	6.15 #116	OHIO
PPA / play	−0.09 #135	+0.09 #71	OHIO
Success rate	33% #135	42% #81	OHIO

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: OHIO offense

	OHIO off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #69	37.6 #135	OHIO
Yards / play	6.12 #39	6.28 #124	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.16 #52	+0.26 #133	OHIO
Success rate	44% #54	48% #132	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	4.2 #111	4.4 #125	8.6 #124	1.3 #136	0.6 #136	1.9 #136
OHIO allowed	5.8 #80	5.5 #29	11.3 #47	3.9 #32	8.3 #115	12.2 #71

OHIO scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	6.2 #60	7.9 #80	14.1 #74	6.1 #63	6.9 #62	13.0 #59
MASS allowed	10.3 #134	10.6 #122	20.9 #134	11.4 #136	5.3 #42	16.7 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.