Ohio @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Fri, Nov 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff32°F22 mphgusts 44DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ohio

7-4 · Power #78

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo

5-6 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

OHIO -7

✓ BUFF W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 25–18 BUFF

✓ OHIO (70%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOHIO -7

CloseOHIO -7

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -7

no move

CloseOHIO -7

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -7 · unchangedmodel OHIO -9

model OHIO -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (137 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOHIO -7

CloseOHIO -7

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 7-point road favorite at BUFF, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 31–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 7.1; 36.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	TULN @ FAU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-9	24–8	W	U47
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	MRSH @ ODU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	12–0	W	U46.5
Very close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Very close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-9.5	20–10	W	U45
Very close	TROY @ ULM 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-4.5	37–14	W	O45.5
Close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Close	SHSU @ FIU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & total	-5	10–7	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO WLWLL	6-5	55%	2-3	3-4
BUFF LLWLL	3-8	27%	1-5	2-3

Venue/role: OHIO away, as favorite; BUFF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO OUUUO	5-6	45%	7-4
BUFF OUUOO	6-5	55%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 404 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
BUFF	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

OHIO 2–0 BUFF OHIO leads · 2 games since 2023 · OHIO has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Buffalo 16 @ Ohio 47	OHIO -4.5	OHIO W
Nov 7 2023	Ohio 20 @ Buffalo 10	OHIO -9	OHIO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO−3.2 →−3.1▲ 0.1#78

BUFF−9.8 →−13.4▼ 3.6#119

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

OHIO

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#49

Offense

◀ OHIO better

#111

#66

Defense

BUFF better ▶

#37

0.0 #69

Turnovers

◀ OHIO better

−0.8 #125

67 plays #68

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

69 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Even matchup

	OHIO off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #62	22.8 #53	Even
Yards / play	6.11 #36	4.72 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #49	+0.05 #54	Even
Success rate	44% #48	38% #25	BUFF

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	BUFF off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #96	22.6 #51	OHIO
Yards / play	5.19 #105	5.86 #98	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #124	+0.05 #56	OHIO
Success rate	38% #117	41% #60	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	6.3 #64	8.5 #76	14.7 #68	6.2 #59	7.5 #48	13.7 #53
BUFF allowed	2.2 #4	6.3 #38	8.5 #14	6.5 #98	7.3 #95	13.8 #99

BUFF scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	4.5 #105	7.0 #94	11.5 #100	7.7 #32	4.0 #125	11.7 #88
OHIO allowed	5.9 #82	5.0 #20	10.9 #42	4.2 #34	7.5 #100	11.7 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.