Air Force @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Fri, Nov 28, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Air Force

3-8 · Power #95

▲ winner

Final

Colorado State

2-9 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

—

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 28–28 CSU

✓ AFA (52%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA LLWLL	4-7	36%	3-2	—
CSU LLLWL	4-7	36%	2-4	—

Venue/role: AFA away; CSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA UUUUU	6-5	55%	3-8
CSU UUUUO	4-7	36%	2-9

Went over in Q4. Of 539 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
CSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

AFA 1–1 CSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · CSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Colorado State 21 @ Air Force 13	CSU -5.5	CSU W
Oct 28 2023	Air Force 30 @ Colorado State 13	AFA -14.5	AFA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−8.0 →−9.5▼ 1.5#102

CSU−6.9 →−12.4▼ 5.5#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

AFA

Longer bar = better

CSU

#41

Offense

◀ AFA better

#117

#132

Defense

CSU better ▶

#109

−0.2 #91

Turnovers

◀ AFA better

−0.4 #106

68 plays #54

Pace

◀ AFA faster

65 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #59	29.8 #108	AFA
Yards / play	5.97 #46	6.30 #122	AFA
PPA / play	+0.21 #29	+0.15 #97	AFA
Success rate	47% #29	44% #109	AFA

When CSU has the ball

Even matchup

	CSU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #126	31.2 #118	Even
Yards / play	5.00 #116	7.22 #136	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.36 #137	Even
Success rate	40% #103	50% #135	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	5.0 #88	6.1 #108	11.1 #104	6.3 #55	11.4 #2	17.6 #13
CSU allowed	4.7 #53	12.5 #135	17.2 #118	6.9 #111	5.7 #47	12.6 #81

CSU scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	4.1 #108	4.0 #131	8.1 #129	2.8 #130	7.4 #53	10.2 #110
AFA allowed	6.8 #100	5.5 #24	12.3 #60	7.7 #122	11.2 #134	18.9 #134

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.