Colorado State @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Boise State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F0 mphDryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

2-8 · Power #116

final

Final

Boise State

6-4 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -17.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 17–34 BOIS

✓ BOIS (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -16.5

CloseBOIS -17.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -16.5

1 → BOIS

CloseBOIS -17.5

1 pt toward Boise State

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -16.5 · closed BOIS -17.5 · moved 1 toward BOISmodel BOIS -19.5

model BOIS -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 49% (126 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (261 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -16.5

CloseBOIS -17.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 17.5-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 49–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.8 against an average line of 16.8; 53.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Very close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Very close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Very close	UTSA vs ECU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	41–27	L	O48
Very close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Very close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-19.5	49–23	W	O45.5
Very close	TROY vs UL 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-15.5	31–24	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU WLLLW	4-6	40%	2-2	4-3
BOIS WWWLL	7-3	70%	4-1	6-2

Venue/role: CSU away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU OUUUU	3-7	30%	2-8
BOIS OOUUU	5-5	50%	6-4

Went over in Q4. Of 485 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
BOIS	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CSU 1–13 BOIS BOIS leads · 14 games since 2011 · BOIS has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Boise State 30 @ Colorado State 31	BOIS -7.5	CSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−6.9 →−12.0▼ 5.1#114

BOIS+6.0 →+3.4▼ 2.6#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CSU

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#115

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#65

#99

Defense

BOIS better ▶

#42

−0.1 #90

Turnovers

BOIS better ▶

+0.2 #53

65 plays #94

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

71 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: BOIS defense

	CSU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #125	23.3 #57	BOIS
Yards / play	4.97 #120	5.30 #51	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.02 #113	+0.05 #47	BOIS
Success rate	40% #101	36% #13	BOIS

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #52	27.9 #93	BOIS
Yards / play	5.84 #63	6.32 #125	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.14 #58	+0.13 #86	BOIS
Success rate	41% #86	43% #90	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	3.8 #117	4.4 #124	8.2 #129	3.1 #128	6.7 #70	9.8 #115
BOIS allowed	2.6 #14	9.1 #98	11.7 #54	5.5 #64	6.1 #59	11.6 #61

BOIS scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	8.2 #21	7.6 #88	15.8 #54	6.1 #63	7.7 #44	13.8 #51
CSU allowed	4.5 #50	11.7 #133	16.2 #109	6.9 #111	4.8 #32	11.7 #63

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.