Utah State @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Utah State

5-5 · Power #86

▲ winner

Final

Fresno State

7-3 · Power #82

final

Closing spread

FRES -1.5

✓ USU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 26–28 FRES

✗ FRES (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -2.5

CloseFRES -1.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -2.5

1 → USU

CloseFRES -1.5

1 pt toward Utah State

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -2.5 · closed FRES -1.5 · moved 1 toward USUmodel FRES -4

model FRES -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 50% (194 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (302 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -2.5

CloseFRES -1.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 1.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 28–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 6.4 against an average line of 2.3; 53.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	14–42	L	O48
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	26–41	L	O48
Very close	MRSH vs ARST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	35–21	W	O52.5
Very close	TOL vs OHIO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	7–24	L	U45.5
Very close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	SHSU vs WKU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	14–31	L	U55
Very close	NU vs PUR 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	19–0	W	U47
Very close	EMU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	20–37	L	O53.5
Very close	BUFF vs KENT 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	27–30	L	O51
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU LWLWW	8-2	80%	3-2	4-1
FRES LLLWW	5-5	50%	3-2	2-3

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU OUUOU	5-5	50%	5-5
FRES UOUUU	4-6	40%	7-3

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
FRES	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USU 14–19 FRES (1 tied) FRES leads · 34 games since 1952 · USU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 13 2023	Fresno State 37 @ Utah State 32	FRES -5.5	USU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−10.4 →−5.4▲ 5.0#86

FRES−4.5 →−4.8▼ 0.3#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

USU

Longer bar = better

FRES

#39

Offense

◀ USU better

#98

#110

Defense

FRES better ▶

#35

+0.5 #32

Turnovers

◀ USU better

+0.1 #61

65 plays #85

Pace

Even

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Even matchup

	USU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #35	19.9 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.52 #24	4.80 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #30	+0.06 #56	USU
Success rate	43% #66	40% #40	FRES

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #80	29.7 #107	FRES
Yards / play	5.24 #103	5.82 #96	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #109	+0.19 #116	Even
Success rate	40% #99	45% #119	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	8.3 #19	10.3 #33	18.6 #23	8.1 #24	5.9 #91	14.0 #46
FRES allowed	5.4 #72	7.6 #79	13.0 #75	2.6 #9	4.3 #23	6.9 #8

FRES scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	5.2 #86	8.4 #77	13.6 #83	4.9 #94	7.4 #54	12.3 #74
USU allowed	4.7 #54	11.0 #129	15.7 #104	5.7 #78	7.7 #102	13.4 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.