Wyoming @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F6 mphgusts 13Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Wyoming

4-5 · Power #107

final

Final

Fresno State

6-3 · Power #82

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -2.5

✓ FRES W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

WYO 19–22 FRES

✓ FRES (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -4.5

CloseFRES -2.5

Total39.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -4.5

2 → WYO

CloseFRES -2.5

2 pts toward Wyoming

Total

Open39.5

▲ 1

Close40.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -4.5 · closed FRES -2.5 · moved 2 toward WYOmodel FRES -5.5

model FRES -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 52% (303 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (107 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -4.5

CloseFRES -2.5

Total39.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 2.5-point home favorite against WYO, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 24–3; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 40.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 2.8; 45.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEV vs AFA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	19–22	L	U44.5
Very close	BGSU vs CMU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	6–27	L	U43.5
Very close	BGSU vs BALL 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.5	24–21	L	O39.5
Close	M-OH vs WMU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	26–17	W	O40.5
Close	SDSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	27–24	W	O47.5
Close	ILL vs MSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	38–16	W	O47.5
Close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Close	OHIO vs BUFF 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-4	47–16	W	O46.5
Close	OHIO vs M-OH 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	24–20	W	U50.5
Close	M-OH vs NIU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	20–9	W	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WYO LWWWL	5-4	56%	2-2	2-4
FRES LLLLW	4-5	44%	2-2	1-3

Venue/role: WYO away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WYO UOUUU	2-7	22%	4-5
FRES UUOUU	4-5	44%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 36.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WYO	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
FRES	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WYO 1–0 FRES WYO leads · 1 game since 2023 · WYO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Fresno State 19 @ Wyoming 24	FRES -4.5	WYO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WYO−11.9 →−8.0▲ 3.9#99

FRES−4.5 →−5.7▼ 1.2#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WYO

Longer bar = better

FRES

#108

Offense

FRES better ▶

#85

#41

Defense

Even

#51

−0.3 #104

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

0.0 #70

65 plays #87

Pace

Even

65 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	WYO off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #122	21.8 #42	FRES
Yards / play	5.32 #99	4.99 #30	FRES
PPA / play	+0.03 #110	+0.09 #71	FRES
Success rate	40% #100	41% #59	FRES

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: WYO defense

	FRES off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #76	20.2 #29	WYO
Yards / play	5.37 #95	5.23 #47	WYO
PPA / play	+0.06 #101	+0.03 #39	WYO
Success rate	43% #67	40% #50	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WYO scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	4.2 #111	4.1 #132	8.3 #127	4.2 #110	6.9 #63	11.1 #91
FRES allowed	5.7 #75	8.4 #94	14.1 #89	2.9 #13	4.8 #31	7.7 #9

FRES scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	5.0 #89	9.0 #64	14.0 #76	5.4 #78	6.7 #70	12.1 #75
WYO allowed	4.9 #59	6.9 #57	11.8 #55	3.2 #20	5.2 #42	8.4 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.