Kent State @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Tue, Nov 11, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Akron · Conference game

Weather at kickoff33°F14 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kent State

3-6 · Power #132

▲ winner

Final

Akron

4-6 · Power #127

final

Closing spread

AKR -7.5

✓ KENT W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

KENT 20–28 AKR

✗ AKR (71%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAKR -4.5

CloseAKR -7.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAKR -4.5

3 → AKR

CloseAKR -7.5

3 pts toward Akron

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AKR -4.5 · closed AKR -7.5 · moved 3 toward AKRmodel AKR -8

model AKR -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 56% (187 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (79 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAKR -4.5

CloseAKR -7.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AKR as a 7.5-point home favorite against KENT, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KENT won 42–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 7.3; 51 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	FIU vs MTSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	35–24	W	O51
Close	NIU vs BALL 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	21–7	W	U42
Close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25
Close	BALL vs CONN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & rest	-9.5	25–21	L	U47.5
Close	KENN vs MTSU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	24–16	W	U54.5
Close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	16–13	L	U50
Close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-5	13–9	L	U48
Close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Close	UTEP vs KENN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	43–35	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT WWLWL	4-4	50%	1-4	3-4
AKR WLLWW	5-5	50%	3-2	2-0

Venue/role: KENT away, as underdog; AKR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT UUOUU	4-4	50%	3-6
AKR OUOUO	5-5	50%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 569 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENT	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
AKR	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

KENT 19–26 AKR (1 tied) AKR leads · 46 games since 1972 · KENT has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 19 2024	Akron 38 @ Kent State 17	AKR -10.5	AKR W
Nov 1 2023	Kent State 27 @ Akron 31	AKR -3.5	AKR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENT−26.4 →−21.0▲ 5.4#133

AKR−13.5 →−16.2▼ 2.7#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

KENT

Longer bar = better

AKR

#130

Offense

AKR better ▶

#113

#109

Defense

AKR better ▶

#73

−0.3 #98

Turnovers

AKR better ▶

+0.5 #30

58 plays #137

Pace

AKR faster ▶

68 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: AKR defense

	KENT off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #126	27.1 #90	AKR
Yards / play	4.68 #130	5.90 #102	AKR
PPA / play	−0.05 #130	+0.05 #46	AKR
Success rate	34% #132	40% #52	AKR

When AKR has the ball

Even matchup

	AKR off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #112	34.3 #128	Even
Yards / play	5.00 #115	6.06 #114	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #112	+0.18 #110	Even
Success rate	39% #114	42% #82	KENT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KENT scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	4.2 #105	3.0 #134	7.2 #132	6.2 #64	4.6 #119	10.8 #96
AKR allowed	6.6 #99	8.3 #87	14.9 #93	6.5 #101	5.7 #52	12.2 #75

AKR scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	5.2 #88	6.8 #97	12.0 #98	5.5 #79	3.8 #126	9.3 #117
KENT allowed	9.2 #130	10.3 #116	19.6 #131	9.7 #132	5.1 #40	14.8 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.