Ball State @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

3-4 · Power #133

final

Final

Northern Illinois

1-6 · Power #124

▲ winner

Closing spread

NIU -6.5

✓ NIU W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 17–24 NIU

✓ NIU (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -4.5

CloseNIU -6.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNIU -4.5

2 → NIU

CloseNIU -6.5

2 pts toward Northern Illinois

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Close42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NIU -4.5 · closed NIU -6.5 · moved 2 toward NIUmodel NIU -8.5

model NIU -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (200 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (203 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -4.5

CloseNIU -6.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 6.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 21–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 6.7; 48.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SHSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	27–33	L	O42
Very close	UTEP vs KENN 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	43–35	W	O42.5
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	10–16	L	U44
Very close	CSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	17–13	L	U46
Very close	CSU vs UNM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.25	17–0	W	U36
Very close	SHSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	34–37	L	O38
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Very close	TEM vs MASS 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	28–0	W	U44
Close	BUFF vs EMU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	11–24	L	U38

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL WWWLW	5-2	71%	2-2	3-2
NIU LLLLL	1-6	14%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; NIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL OOUUO	3-4	43%	3-4
NIU UUUUO	1-6	14%	1-6

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
NIU	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BALL 24–24 NIU (1 tied) Series tied · 49 games since 1968 · NIU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Northern Illinois 23 @ Ball State 25	NIU -13.5	BALL W
Nov 7 2023	Ball State 20 @ Northern Illinois 17	NIU -9	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−15.8 →−18.6▼ 2.8#130

NIU−5.3 →−13.5▼ 8.2#119

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BALL

Longer bar = better

NIU

#129

Offense

Even

#136

#115

Defense

NIU better ▶

#68

−0.4 #104

Turnovers

NIU better ▶

−0.1 #85

58 plays #136

Pace

Even

60 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	BALL off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #128	24.3 #70	NIU
Yards / play	4.72 #129	5.21 #45	NIU
PPA / play	−0.02 #127	+0.11 #76	NIU
Success rate	35% #133	42% #80	NIU

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: BALL defense

	NIU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	12.3 #136	31.0 #117	Even
Yards / play	4.35 #136	6.08 #114	BALL
PPA / play	−0.08 #134	+0.20 #119	Even
Success rate	30% #137	45% #110	BALL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	4.0 #114	3.0 #134	7.0 #130	5.1 #84	5.6 #92	10.7 #102
NIU allowed	3.9 #38	5.7 #38	9.6 #32	5.4 #76	9.3 #128	14.7 #115

NIU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	3.3 #124	3.4 #132	6.7 #131	2.7 #131	2.9 #131	5.6 #135
BALL allowed	10.6 #133	7.0 #71	17.6 #121	5.9 #85	7.6 #96	13.4 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.