Toledo @ Washington State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Washington State

Weather at kickoff51°F12 mphgusts 32Wet0.1 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Toledo

4-3 · Power #48

final

Final

Washington State

3-4 · Power #60

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -1.5

✓ WSU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 24–22 WSU

✗ TOL (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -1.5

CloseTOL -1.5

Total50.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSU -1.5

3 → TOL

CloseTOL -1.5

3 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open50.5

▼ 5

Close45.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSU -1.5 · closed TOL -1.5 · moved 3 toward TOLmodel TOL -2

model TOL -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (146 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (203 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -1.5

CloseTOL -1.5

Total50.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 1.5-point road favorite at WSU, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WSU won 28–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 52%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 9.7 against an average line of 3.4; 40.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	19–24	L	P43
Close	JMU @ MRSH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-5	20–9	W	U49.25
Close	MINN @ WIS 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	24–7	W	U40.5
Close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Close	WAKE @ ORST 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	39–14	W	O47.5
Close	MD @ NEB 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-1.5	13–10	W	U42
Close	AFA @ SJSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	45–20	W	O45.5
Close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Close	AFA @ SDSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-2	13–3	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WLWLW	5-2	71%	1-2	4-2
WSU LLWWW	4-3	57%	1-2	3-2

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; WSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL OUUOO	4-3	57%	4-3
WSU OOUUU	3-4	43%	3-4

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
WSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TOL 0–1 WSU WSU leads · 1 game since 2025 · WSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL−4.5 →+3.5▲ 8.0#56

WSU−2.0 →−3.1▼ 1.1#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TOL

Longer bar = better

WSU

#42

Offense

◀ TOL better

#110

Defense

◀ TOL better

#90

+0.6 #39

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

−1.0 #130

71 plays #28

Pace

◀ TOL faster

63 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #32	27.1 #93	TOL
Yards / play	6.46 #32	5.53 #74	TOL
PPA / play	+0.18 #44	+0.11 #77	TOL
Success rate	44% #59	46% #117	TOL

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	WSU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #114	14.3 #7	TOL
Yards / play	4.97 #120	3.79 #2	TOL
PPA / play	+0.01 #121	−0.10 #7	TOL
Success rate	42% #84	34% #9	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	8.4 #24	13.7 #4	22.1 #10	7.9 #31	5.3 #97	13.1 #66
WSU allowed	6.4 #95	6.9 #65	13.3 #77	4.7 #56	9.1 #124	13.9 #106

WSU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	4.9 #97	7.0 #94	11.9 #99	5.3 #81	3.4 #126	8.7 #121
TOL allowed	3.4 #31	1.9 #3	5.3 #4	1.9 #8	7.1 #84	9.0 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.