Minnesota @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

5-2 · Power #69

final

Final

Iowa

5-2 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -7.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 14–23 IOWA

✓ IOWA (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -8.5

CloseIOWA -7.5

Total38.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -8.5

1 → MINN

CloseIOWA -7.5

1 pt toward Minnesota

Total

Open38.5

▲ 1

Close39.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -8.5 · closed IOWA -7.5 · moved 1 toward MINNmodel IOWA -11

model IOWA -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (170 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (247 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -8.5

CloseIOWA -7.5

Total38.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 7.5-point home favorite against MINN, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 41–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 39.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 6.9; 41.5 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IOWA vs NEB 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	13–10	P	U41.5
Close	LSU vs SC 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	20–10	W	U44.5
Close	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	24–31	L	O44
Close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Close	SC vs MIZ 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	34–30	L	O42.5
Close	TA&M vs FLA 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	34–17	W	O48
Close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	ILL vs IOWA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	9–6	L	U36.5
Close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN LLLLW	1-5	17%	0-2	1-1
IOWA WWWWL	5-2	71%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: MINN away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN OOOUU	4-3	57%	5-2
IOWA OOUUO	3-4	43%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 119 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–43.5, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	7-3 70%	4-5 44%	5-5 50%
IOWA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MINN 62–54 IOWA (2 tied) MINN leads · 118 games since 1901 · IOWA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Iowa 31 @ Minnesota 14	IOWA -2.5	IOWA W
Oct 21 2023	Minnesota 12 @ Iowa 10	IOWA -3.5	MINN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN+8.6 →+3.1▼ 5.5#58

IOWA+7.8 →+10.9▲ 3.1#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MINN

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#85

Offense

Even

#76

#47

Defense

IOWA better ▶

#14

+0.7 #22

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

+0.3 #51

63 plays #113

Pace

Even

63 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	MINN off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #79	14.6 #9	IOWA
Yards / play	5.43 #93	4.20 #7	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.11 #88	−0.06 #9	IOWA
Success rate	42% #80	38% #30	IOWA

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	IOWA off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #59	19.0 #27	MINN
Yards / play	5.18 #105	4.98 #31	MINN
PPA / play	+0.11 #92	+0.08 #58	MINN
Success rate	45% #46	42% #72	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	5.4 #79	10.7 #35	16.1 #55	4.9 #94	5.9 #87	10.7 #102
IOWA allowed	4.9 #63	5.4 #30	10.3 #41	1.0 #2	3.3 #11	4.3 #3

IOWA scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	8.6 #22	8.7 #68	17.3 #42	4.7 #99	7.9 #50	12.6 #78
MINN allowed	4.4 #54	6.7 #61	11.1 #51	3.4 #29	4.4 #27	7.9 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.