Oregon @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff41°F5 mphgusts 11Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Oregon

7-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Iowa

6-2 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

ORE -4.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 26–21 IOWA

✓ ORE (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -5.5

CloseORE -4.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -5.5

1 → IOWA

CloseORE -4.5

1 pt toward Iowa

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -5.5 · closed ORE -4.5 · moved 1 toward IOWAmodel ORE -9

model ORE -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (139 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (272 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -5.5

CloseORE -4.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 4.5-point road favorite at IOWA, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 18–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 42.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 4.6; 43.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PSU @ WIS 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	28–13	W	U47
Close	OSU @ PSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	20–13	W	U47.5
Close	MINN @ ILL 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	14–26	L	P40
Close	BYU @ ARIZ 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	33–27	W	O46.5
Close	UGA @ AUB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	20–10	W	U46.5
Close	TEX @ TA&M 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	17–7	W	U50
Close	BYU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	22–21	L	O40.5
Close	TA&M @ SC 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	20–44	L	O43.5
Loose	PSU @ MINN 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & total	-11	26–25	L	O45
Loose	ALA @ MIZ 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3	27–24	P	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE LWLWL	4-4	50%	2-1	3-4
IOWA WWWLW	6-2	75%	3-2	2-0

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; IOWA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE UOUOU	4-4	50%	7-1
IOWA OUUOO	4-4	50%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 54% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
IOWA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+21.3 →+24.0▲ 2.7#3

IOWA+7.8 →+12.5▲ 4.7#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ORE

Longer bar = better

IOWA

Offense

◀ ORE better

#67

#10

Defense

Even

#10

+0.6 #25

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #24

66 plays #83

Pace

◀ ORE faster

62 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	41.3 #6	13.1 #4	Even
Yards / play	7.36 #4	4.01 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.37 #2	−0.08 #7	Even
Success rate	50% #12	37% #23	Even

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	IOWA off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #53	13.5 #6	ORE
Yards / play	5.15 #105	4.05 #5	ORE
PPA / play	+0.11 #73	−0.06 #12	ORE
Success rate	45% #37	37% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	9.0 #17	13.4 #5	22.4 #9	12.1 #3	5.1 #105	17.3 #17
IOWA allowed	4.3 #46	4.8 #14	9.0 #20	1.3 #1	2.9 #5	4.1 #2

IOWA scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	9.6 #10	9.4 #58	19.0 #25	4.5 #105	7.8 #49	12.3 #81
ORE allowed	2.5 #14	1.5 #1	4.0 #2	1.3 #1	7.4 #96	8.6 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.