Northwestern @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Fri, Nov 7, 2025, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

5-3 · Power #59

final

Final

USC

6-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -14.5

✓ USC W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 19–35 USC

✓ USC (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -15.5

CloseUSC -14.5

Total51.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -15.5

1 → NU

CloseUSC -14.5

1 pt toward Northwestern

Total

Open51.5

▲ 3

Close54.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -15.5 · closed USC -14.5 · moved 1 toward NUmodel USC -22

model USC -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 56% (119 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (268 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -15.5

CloseUSC -14.5

Total51.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 14.5-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 38–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.4 against an average line of 14.9; 56.4 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USC vs RUTG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.75	42–20	W	O56.25
Close	OU vs WVU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-13	59–20	W	O59.5
Close	MISS vs SC 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-13	30–14	W	U55.5
Close	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Close	CLEM vs SC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-14	30–31	L	O53
Close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Close	TENN vs FLA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	23–17	L	U55.5
Close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Close	USC vs WIS 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	38–21	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU LWWWW	6-2	75%	2-1	3-1
USC LLWWL	4-4	50%	3-1	3-4

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU UOUUO	3-5	38%	5-3
USC OOUUU	4-4	50%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 535 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
USC	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU−2.5 →+1.9▲ 4.4#58

USC+14.0 →+18.6▲ 4.6#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

USC

#87

Offense

USC better ▶

#57

Defense

Even

#69

−0.5 #111

Turnovers

USC better ▶

+0.3 #51

66 plays #84

Pace

Even

66 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Even matchup

	NU off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #102	22.4 #53	USC
Yards / play	5.48 #89	5.59 #79	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #103	+0.05 #44	USC
Success rate	44% #53	44% #99	NU

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	39.8 #8	16.8 #15	Even
Yards / play	7.62 #1	5.31 #57	USC
PPA / play	+0.34 #4	+0.10 #74	USC
Success rate	54% #1	43% #83	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NU scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.6 #105	6.9 #96	11.5 #104	5.0 #93	6.0 #86	11.0 #94
USC allowed	4.6 #51	6.0 #40	10.6 #40	6.8 #104	5.0 #37	11.8 #65

USC scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	9.0 #17	10.6 #35	19.6 #20	10.1 #7	10.0 #10	20.1 #5
NU allowed	3.5 #37	5.0 #20	8.5 #16	4.3 #44	4.0 #19	8.3 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.