Michigan @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F15 mphgusts 32DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan

7-2 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Northwestern

5-4 · Power #59

final

Closing spread

MICH -10.5

✓ NU W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 25–14 NU

✓ MICH (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -10.5

CloseMICH -10.5

Total40.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -10.5

no move

CloseMICH -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open40.5

▲ 2

Close42.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -10.5 · unchangedmodel MICH -10.5 matches the line

model MICH -10.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 51% (77 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -10.5

CloseMICH -10.5

Total40.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 10.5-point road favorite at NU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 24–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 10.2; 45.8 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Very close	WISC @ NU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	42–7	W	O44.5
Very close	CLEM @ NCSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-10	17–24	L	U44.5
Close	WIS @ IU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	14–20	L	U45
Close	TEX @ UK 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-12.5	16–13	L	U45.5
Close	WIS @ NU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-9.5	23–3	W	U42.5
Close	KSU @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	19–24	L	U45.5
Close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Close	ALA @ SC 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-11.5	29–22	L	O47.5
Close	ISU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	31–28	L	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH LLWLL	3-6	33%	1-3	3-4
NU WWWWL	6-3	67%	4-1	3-2

Venue/role: MICH away, as favorite; NU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH UUUOU	4-5	44%	7-2
NU OUUOO	4-5	44%	5-4

Went over in Q4. Of 257 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MICH 1–0 NU MICH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MICH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Northwestern 6 @ Michigan 50	MICH -10.5	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+12.2 →+14.1▲ 1.9#17

NU−2.5 →+1.9▲ 4.4#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MICH

Longer bar = better

#46

Offense

◀ MICH better

#87

#36

Defense

◀ MICH better

#71

+0.9 #11

Turnovers

◀ MICH better

−0.6 #115

63 plays #112

Pace

Even

65 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #68	19.1 #22	NU
Yards / play	6.48 #26	5.59 #76	MICH
PPA / play	+0.18 #43	+0.14 #95	MICH
Success rate	45% #47	43% #91	MICH

When NU has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	NU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #109	17.2 #13	MICH
Yards / play	5.44 #88	4.62 #13	MICH
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	+0.01 #30	MICH
Success rate	45% #46	43% #88	NU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	7.7 #30	6.1 #105	13.8 #78	7.6 #34	6.8 #66	14.3 #48
NU allowed	3.9 #41	6.0 #37	9.9 #31	4.6 #46	4.7 #29	9.2 #29

NU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.9 #94	6.9 #96	11.8 #101	4.8 #95	5.3 #99	10.1 #107
MICH allowed	2.3 #9	7.2 #72	9.6 #25	2.7 #12	5.0 #37	7.7 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.