Penn State @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F14 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Penn State

3-6 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

3-6 · Power #67

final

Closing spread

PSU -6.5

✓ PSU W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 28–21 MSU

✓ PSU (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -7.5

ClosePSU -6.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -7.5

1 → MSU

ClosePSU -6.5

1 pt toward Michigan State

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -7.5 · closed PSU -6.5 · moved 1 toward MSUmodel PSU -11

model PSU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (161 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (82 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -7.5

ClosePSU -6.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 28–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 7.2; 53.4 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC @ UCLA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.5	19–13	W	U52.5
Very close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	38–27	W	O49
Very close	ILL @ PUR 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	43–27	W	O54.5
Very close	CLEM @ NCSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	17–24	L	U44.5
Very close	WIS @ IU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	14–20	L	U45
Close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Close	CAL @ WAKE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	46–36	W	O55
Close	DUKE @ UVA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-3.5	27–30	L	O47
Close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-7	31–27	L	O54
Close	BAY @ HOU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-7	20–10	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU LLWLW	2-7	22%	1-2	0-6
MSU WLWWW	5-4	56%	1-4	5-0

Venue/role: PSU away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU OUOOO	7-2	78%	3-6
MSU OUOOU	6-3	67%	3-6

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	8-2 80%
MSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PSU 1–0 MSU PSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · PSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2023	Penn State 42 @ Michigan State 0	PSU -22.5	PSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+20.4 →+11.5▼ 8.9#25

MSU+0.3 →−0.9▼ 1.2#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

PSU

Longer bar = better

MSU

#62

Offense

◀ PSU better

#92

#59

Defense

◀ PSU better

#115

+0.1 #64

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

−0.3 #101

63 plays #111

Pace

Even

64 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #52	31.4 #117	PSU
Yards / play	5.30 #98	5.97 #106	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #63	+0.19 #117	PSU
Success rate	45% #34	45% #118	PSU

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	MSU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #82	22.3 #55	PSU
Yards / play	5.39 #93	5.09 #39	PSU
PPA / play	+0.06 #103	+0.08 #61	PSU
Success rate	41% #89	42% #82	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	4.2 #106	8.8 #67	13.0 #87	6.2 #62	10.7 #3	16.9 #21
MSU allowed	6.8 #104	8.1 #86	14.9 #95	7.3 #115	7.1 #89	14.4 #112

MSU scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	4.2 #106	6.1 #106	10.3 #112	6.8 #54	6.4 #75	13.2 #56
PSU allowed	3.3 #29	6.7 #55	10.0 #32	4.1 #37	6.8 #73	10.9 #50

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.