Nebraska @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff37°F2 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Nebraska

7-3 · Power #45

final

Final

Penn State

4-6 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -7.5

✓ PSU W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 21–29 PSU

✓ PSU (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -9.5

ClosePSU -7.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -9.5

2 → NEB

ClosePSU -7.5

2 pts toward Nebraska

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -9.5 · closed PSU -7.5 · moved 2 toward NEBmodel PSU -7.5 matches the line

model PSU -7.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (199 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (205 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -9.5

ClosePSU -7.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 7.5-point home favorite against NEB, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 37–10; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.4 against an average line of 6.5; 52.8 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU vs SC 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-8.5	20–10	W	U44.5
Very close	TA&M vs FLA 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	34–17	W	O48
Very close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5
Very close	SC vs UK 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	35–13	W	O46.5
Very close	ASU vs HOU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	16–24	L	U47
Very close	NEB vs NU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	28–21	P	O44.5
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-7	31–16	W	U52
Close	LSU vs OU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & total	-6	37–17	W	O48
Close	VAN vs AUB 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-6	45–38	W	O46.5
Close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-7	34–17	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB LLLWW	4-6	40%	1-2	2-1
PSU LWLWW	3-7	30%	1-5	1-6

Venue/role: NEB away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB OUOUO	7-3	70%	7-3
PSU UOOOU	7-3	70%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 440 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
PSU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+8.3 →+8.5▲ 0.2#35

PSU+20.4 →+12.4▼ 8.0#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

NEB

Longer bar = better

PSU

#40

Offense

◀ NEB better

#60

#38

Defense

Even

#47

+0.3 #41

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #54

64 plays #110

Pace

Even

63 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Even matchup

	NEB off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #39	21.1 #37	Even
Yards / play	6.07 #40	5.06 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #67	+0.05 #49	Even
Success rate	49% #15	41% #67	NEB

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	PSU off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #49	19.9 #23	NEB
Yards / play	5.35 #94	4.94 #30	NEB
PPA / play	+0.13 #62	+0.05 #51	Even
Success rate	46% #33	40% #48	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	7.1 #42	11.6 #18	18.7 #23	6.3 #56	7.5 #52	13.8 #51
PSU allowed	3.7 #35	6.3 #40	10.0 #29	3.7 #29	6.1 #59	9.8 #36

PSU scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	4.5 #103	8.6 #71	13.1 #89	5.6 #77	11.0 #3	16.6 #22
NEB allowed	1.6 #3	5.4 #24	7.0 #8	8.1 #124	4.8 #32	12.9 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.