Houston @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Houston

6-1 · Power #49

▲ winner

Final

Arizona State

5-2 · Power #41

final

Closing spread

ASU -7.5

✓ HOU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 19–27 ASU

✗ ASU (73%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -8.5

CloseASU -7.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenASU -8.5

1 → HOU

CloseASU -7.5

1 pt toward Houston

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ASU -8.5 · closed ASU -7.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel ASU -12.5

model ASU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 58% (173 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (255 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenASU -8.5

CloseASU -7.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as a 7.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 24–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 8.4; 47.1 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA vs FRES 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	20–13	L	U46.5
Very close	AUB vs VAN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	7–17	L	U48
Very close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	MINN vs UL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	35–24	W	O48.5
Very close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	FLA vs MSST 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-9.5	23–21	L	U51
Very close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	23–24	L	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WLLWW	5-2	71%	2-1	1-1
ASU WWWLW	4-3	57%	3-1	2-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOUOO	5-2	71%	6-1
ASU UUUOU	2-5	29%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
ASU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−1.8 →+2.4▲ 4.2#60

ASU+11.1 →+9.8▼ 1.3#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

HOU

Longer bar = better

ASU

#89

Offense

Even

#83

#28

Defense

◀ HOU better

#62

+0.6 #38

Turnovers

ASU better ▶

+0.9 #21

68 plays #52

Pace

ASU faster ▶

75 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: ASU defense

	HOU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #63	24.3 #72	Even
Yards / play	5.58 #84	5.07 #37	ASU
PPA / play	+0.08 #95	+0.08 #60	ASU
Success rate	39% #114	42% #78	ASU

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	ASU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #79	19.0 #28	HOU
Yards / play	5.30 #99	4.81 #22	HOU
PPA / play	+0.13 #70	0.00 #26	HOU
Success rate	42% #83	39% #35	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.3 #83	9.9 #47	15.1 #64	6.1 #67	7.7 #57	13.9 #56
ASU allowed	4.3 #46	7.3 #79	11.6 #58	4.9 #59	7.9 #103	12.7 #84

ASU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	3.7 #122	7.1 #94	10.9 #111	7.9 #32	7.3 #63	15.1 #44
HOU allowed	6.1 #85	5.3 #28	11.4 #56	0.9 #1	6.7 #72	7.6 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.