Baylor @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

4-3 · Power #50

final

Final

Cincinnati

6-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

✓ CIN W

Total

69.5

▼ Under · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 31–35 CIN

✓ CIN (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -5.5

CloseCIN -3.5

Total66.5 → 69.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -5.5

2 → BAY

CloseCIN -3.5

2 pts toward Baylor

Total

Open66.5

▲ 3

Close69.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -5.5 · closed CIN -3.5 · moved 2 toward BAYmodel CIN -4

model CIN -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (269 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (179 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -5.5

CloseCIN -3.5

Total66.5 → 69.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 3.5-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 41–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 61 points stayed under 69.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 4.1; 59.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs WAKE 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	21–31	L	U67.5
Close	UCF vs SMU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	41–19	W	U65
Close	TULN vs SMU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	59–24	W	O65
Close	PITT vs SYR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-5	41–13	W	U62.5
Close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Close	TCU vs BAY 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	42–36	W	O66.5
Close	ECU vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	3–42	L	U66.5
Close	UNC vs PITT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	42–24	W	O65.5
Close	BYU vs ARK 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	35–52	L	O66.5
Close	OU vs OKST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-7	28–13	W	U67.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY LLLLL	1-6	14%	1-2	1-1
CIN –WWLW	4-2	67%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY UUOOO	5-2	71%	4-3
CIN OOOUO	5-2	71%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 47% of games with totals 65.5–73.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
CIN	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAY 1–1 CIN Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · CIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Baylor 32 @ Cincinnati 29	CIN -2.5	BAY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY+6.9 →+6.5▼ 0.4#45

CIN+3.5 →+7.0▲ 3.5#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BAY

Longer bar = better

CIN

#42

Offense

CIN better ▶

#97

Defense

CIN better ▶

#71

−1.0 #131

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+0.1 #64

77 plays #3

Pace

◀ BAY faster

58 plays #135

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: BAY offense

	BAY off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #26	18.9 #26	Even
Yards / play	6.28 #42	5.40 #64	BAY
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	+0.13 #87	BAY
Success rate	45% #42	45% #106	BAY

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	37.9 #15	31.4 #119	CIN
Yards / play	7.72 #2	5.68 #85	CIN
PPA / play	+0.39 #4	+0.13 #85	CIN
Success rate	52% #6	44% #100	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	5.3 #83	13.4 #5	18.7 #30	3.6 #120	12.6 #2	16.1 #30
CIN allowed	1.4 #4	6.7 #61	8.1 #18	5.0 #64	5.7 #53	10.7 #52

CIN scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	11.9 #3	13.3 #6	25.1 #3	4.9 #93	7.9 #52	12.7 #70
BAY allowed	5.9 #81	10.7 #121	16.6 #118	6.4 #99	7.4 #87	13.9 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.