BYU @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F11 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

BYU

7-0 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Iowa State

5-2 · Power #36

final

Closing spread

ISU -2.5

✓ BYU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 23–25 ISU

✗ ISU (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -2.5

CloseISU -2.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -2.5

no move

CloseISU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -2.5 · unchangedmodel BYU -1.5

model BYU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (268 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -2.5

CloseISU -2.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 2.5-point home favorite against BYU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 41–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 2.7; 53.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5	23–0	W	U47
Very close	ASU vs BYU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	28–23	W	O48.5
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	UVA vs BC 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	24–14	W	U52.5
Very close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Very close	VAN vs LSU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	31–24	W	O48.5
Very close	MINN vs RUTG 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	31–28	L	O51.5
Very close	JMU vs ODU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	63–27	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU WLLWW	5-2	71%	2-1	1-0
ISU LLWLL	3-4	43%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: BYU away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU UUOOU	3-4	43%	7-0
ISU UUOOU	3-4	43%	5-2

Went over in Q3. Of 532 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
ISU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BYU 2–5 ISU ISU leads · 7 games since 1968 · BYU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Iowa State 45 @ BYU 13	ISU -7.5	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+7.8 →+12.7▲ 4.9#20

ISU+7.6 →+8.6▲ 1.0#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BYU

Longer bar = better

ISU

#31

Offense

◀ BYU better

#53

#19

Defense

◀ BYU better

#44

+0.9 #21

Turnovers

◀ BYU better

+0.4 #45

67 plays #61

Pace

ISU faster ▶

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	35.6 #30	19.0 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.48 #30	5.51 #72	BYU
PPA / play	+0.22 #34	+0.03 #38	Even
Success rate	47% #30	39% #38	Even

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	ISU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #67	15.6 #15	BYU
Yards / play	5.91 #55	4.59 #15	BYU
PPA / play	+0.20 #41	−0.03 #20	BYU
Success rate	45% #50	38% #26	BYU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	7.7 #38	12.0 #20	19.7 #19	4.7 #99	9.9 #17	14.6 #46
ISU allowed	4.4 #54	6.9 #65	11.3 #52	3.9 #38	3.9 #19	7.7 #15

ISU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	6.3 #70	9.6 #54	15.9 #58	7.0 #50	6.4 #74	13.4 #61
BYU allowed	3.4 #31	3.9 #10	7.3 #14	2.4 #12	5.4 #49	7.9 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.