Illinois @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F10 mphgusts 26Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Illinois

5-2 · Power #30

final

Final

Washington

5-2 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

WASH -3.5

✓ WASH W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 26–30 WASH

✓ WASH (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -4.5

CloseWASH -3.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWASH -4.5

1 → ILL

CloseWASH -3.5

1 pt toward Illinois

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WASH -4.5 · closed WASH -3.5 · moved 1 toward ILLmodel WASH -7.5

model WASH -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (265 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (247 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -4.5

CloseWASH -3.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 3.5-point home favorite against ILL, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 42–25; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 3.8; 49.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Very close	ASU vs UCF 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	35–31	W	O55.5
Very close	BYU vs KU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–17	L	U55.5
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	13–19	L	U58
Very close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5
Very close	TCU vs BYU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5	44–11	W	O52.5
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5
Very close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL WLWWL	5-2	71%	2-1	1-2
WASH WLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: ILL away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL UOOOU	4-3	57%	5-2
WASH OUUUU	3-4	43%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 512 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
WASH	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL+4.1 →+9.0▲ 4.9#35

WASH+8.0 →+12.5▲ 4.5#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ILL

Longer bar = better

WASH

#39

Offense

WASH better ▶

#21

#101

Defense

WASH better ▶

#57

+0.6 #38

Turnovers

◀ ILL better

+0.3 #54

62 plays #120

Pace

WASH faster ▶

64 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #40	20.3 #38	Even
Yards / play	6.15 #48	5.14 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #38	+0.09 #64	ILL
Success rate	47% #29	42% #83	ILL

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #35	25.4 #79	WASH
Yards / play	6.85 #19	5.60 #78	WASH
PPA / play	+0.27 #21	+0.22 #125	WASH
Success rate	52% #8	47% #122	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	5.4 #79	10.1 #44	15.6 #63	9.3 #15	9.1 #28	18.4 #13
WASH allowed	5.3 #70	5.3 #27	10.6 #45	6.9 #103	2.9 #8	9.7 #39

WASH scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	5.0 #91	9.3 #58	14.3 #75	8.9 #20	11.4 #5	20.3 #6
ILL allowed	5.9 #82	7.3 #77	13.1 #76	5.9 #85	6.4 #69	12.3 #78

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.