Washington @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Washington

5-1 · Power #15

final

Final

Michigan

4-2 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -4.5

✓ MICH W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 23–28 MICH

✓ MICH (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -5.5

CloseMICH -4.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -5.5

1 → WASH

CloseMICH -4.5

1 pt toward Washington

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -5.5 · closed MICH -4.5 · moved 1 toward WASHmodel MICH -4.5 matches the line

model MICH -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (174 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (235 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -5.5

CloseMICH -4.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 4.5-point home favorite against WASH, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 24–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 3.9; 53.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	ASU vs TCU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	27–24	P	U54.5
Very close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Very close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Very close	ALA vs TENN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	34–20	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	0-1
MICH LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: WASH away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH OOUUU	3-3	50%	5-1
MICH UOOUU	3-3	50%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
MICH	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WASH 1–1 MICH Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · WASH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Michigan 17 @ Washington 27	WASH -1.5	WASH W
Jan 8 2023	Washington 13 @ Michigan 34	MICH -5.5	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+8.0 →+14.3▲ 6.3#18

MICH+12.2 →+13.9▲ 1.7#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WASH

Longer bar = better

MICH

#11

Offense

◀ WASH better

#49

#50

Defense

Even

#54

+0.8 #23

Turnovers

MICH better ▶

+1.0 #9

65 plays #86

Pace

◀ WASH faster

62 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	39.2 #17	18.7 #31	Even
Yards / play	7.17 #11	4.76 #29	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #10	+0.07 #57	WASH
Success rate	53% #6	44% #100	WASH

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #62	19.7 #37	WASH
Yards / play	6.71 #23	4.96 #36	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #44	+0.07 #55	Even
Success rate	44% #65	41% #73	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	5.8 #73	9.7 #53	15.5 #63	10.3 #7	13.3 #2	23.7 #2
MICH allowed	3.5 #36	7.3 #74	10.8 #51	3.5 #36	4.3 #30	7.8 #20

MICH scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	7.5 #44	8.0 #83	15.5 #63	7.8 #41	6.2 #79	14.0 #56
WASH allowed	5.0 #66	6.2 #49	11.2 #57	6.8 #108	1.7 #1	8.5 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.