USC @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff65°F3 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

USC

5-1 · Power #12

final

Final

Notre Dame

4-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -10.5

✓ USC W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 26–37 ND

✓ ND (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -7.5

CloseND -10.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -7.5

3 → ND

CloseND -10.5

3 pts toward Notre Dame

Total

Open61.5

▼ 1

Close60.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -7.5 · closed ND -10.5 · moved 3 toward NDmodel ND -9.5

model ND -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 41% (124 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (195 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -7.5

CloseND -10.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 10.5-point home favorite against USC, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 34–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 60.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 9; 49.8 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA vs TENN 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.75	27–13	W	U65.5
Close	OSU vs MICH 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	23–45	L	O56
Close	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Close	TEX vs TCU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	10–17	L	U65.75
Close	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-13	27–20	L	U62
Close	TCU vs SMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-7	34–17	W	U63
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-9	27–10	W	U51
Close	FSU vs PITT 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	31–34	L	O57
Loose	CLEM vs LOU 2024 · Week 10 · loose	-11	21–33	L	U62.5
Loose	ND vs USC 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-3	48–20	W	O61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC WLLLW	3-3	50%	0-2	—
ND LWWLW	3-3	50%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: USC away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC OUOOU	4-2	67%	5-1
ND OOOUU	4-2	67%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 46% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ND	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USC 0–2 ND ND leads · 2 games since 2023 · ND has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Notre Dame 49 @ USC 35	ND -6.5	ND W
Oct 14 2023	USC 20 @ Notre Dame 48	ND -3.5	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+14.0 →+18.9▲ 4.9#10

ND+21.6 →+23.5▲ 1.9#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

USC

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

#15

#65

Defense

Even

#55

+0.7 #31

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+1.0 #7

67 plays #69

Pace

◀ USC faster

65 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	45.5 #3	20.8 #47	USC
Yards / play	8.31 #1	5.34 #56	USC
PPA / play	+0.48 #2	+0.05 #46	USC
Success rate	60% #2	41% #70	USC

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #14	21.3 #51	ND
Yards / play	7.18 #10	5.62 #84	ND
PPA / play	+0.29 #19	+0.04 #41	ND
Success rate	50% #18	42% #83	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USC scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	10.3 #11	12.7 #13	23.0 #10	10.3 #7	12.2 #3	22.5 #3
ND allowed	2.8 #23	12.5 #134	15.3 #102	1.7 #6	3.8 #23	5.5 #8

ND scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	9.2 #17	12.8 #11	22.0 #15	9.3 #17	8.7 #39	18.0 #16
USC allowed	3.8 #36	5.7 #37	9.5 #33	6.8 #101	5.0 #39	11.8 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.