Pittsburgh @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Florida State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F10 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

3-2 · Power #35

▲ winner

Final

Florida State

3-2 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

FSU -11.5

✓ PITT W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 21–33 FSU

✗ FSU (80%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -9.5

CloseFSU -11.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFSU -9.5

2 → FSU

CloseFSU -11.5

2 pts toward Florida State

Total

Open58.5

▼ 1

Close57.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FSU -9.5 · closed FSU -11.5 · moved 2 toward FSUmodel FSU -12.5

model FSU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 40% (88 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (182 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -9.5

CloseFSU -11.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as an 11.5-point home favorite against PITT, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 34–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 11.3; 58.7 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13	27–20	L	U62
Very close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Very close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Very close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Very close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	29–27	L	P56
Very close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14	27–21	L	U50
Close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-10	45–38	L	O58
Close	OU vs WVU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	59–20	W	O59.5
Close	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT WWLLW	3-2	60%	0-1	0-1
FSU WWWLL	3-2	60%	3-1	2-1

Venue/role: PITT away, as underdog; FSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2
FSU OOOOU	4-1	80%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 412 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
FSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PITT 0–1 FSU FSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · FSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Florida State 24 @ Pittsburgh 7	FSU -20.5	PITT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+2.5 →+5.0▲ 2.5#50

FSU0.0 →+14.2▲ 14.2#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

PITT

Longer bar = better

FSU

#50

Offense

FSU better ▶

#13

#21

Defense

◀ PITT better

#47

−0.2 #87

Turnovers

◀ PITT better

−0.6 #114

68 plays #50

Pace

FSU faster ▶

75 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #12	20.8 #49	PITT
Yards / play	6.26 #44	4.77 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #75	+0.04 #45	FSU
Success rate	44% #68	41% #65	Even

When FSU has the ball

Even matchup

	FSU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	46.8 #5	19.6 #38	FSU
Yards / play	7.46 #9	4.13 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #14	−0.01 #27	Even
Success rate	50% #23	32% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	9.6 #18	14.2 #11	23.8 #12	9.2 #23	8.0 #51	17.2 #23
FSU allowed	5.6 #84	4.2 #20	9.8 #43	4.8 #68	4.0 #25	8.8 #36

FSU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	13.2 #4	13.8 #13	27.0 #3	9.8 #13	9.4 #27	19.2 #15
PITT allowed	0.0 #1	8.0 #87	8.0 #24	3.4 #33	6.8 #79	10.2 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.