Florida State @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida State

3-3 · Power #23

final

Final

Stanford

2-4 · Power #85

▲ winner

Closing spread

FSU -17.5

✓ STAN W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 36–18 STAN

✗ FSU (90%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -17.5

CloseFSU -17.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFSU -17.5

no move

CloseFSU -17.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FSU -17.5 · unchangedmodel FSU -18.5

model FSU -18.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 15.5–19.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 50% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -17.5

CloseFSU -17.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 17.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: STAN won 20–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.8 against an average line of 16.4; 59 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-21	41–16	W	O53
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-17	42–7	W	U52
Very close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5
Very close	TULN @ CLT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & total	-14.5	34–3	W	U55
Very close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	MISS @ VAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-17	52–28	W	O59.5
Close	TROY @ USM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	35–17	W	O48.5
Close	APP @ TXST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	24–36	L	O54.5
Close	WAKE @ ODU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.75	27–24	L	U60.5
Close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-14	24–31	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU WWLLL	3-3	50%	0-1	2-2
STAN LWLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	1-4

Venue/role: FSU away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU OOOUO	5-1	83%	3-3
STAN UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
STAN	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU0.0 →+13.3▲ 13.3#20

STAN−3.7 →−7.6▼ 3.9#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

FSU

Longer bar = better

STAN

#11

Offense

◀ FSU better

#111

#64

Defense

◀ FSU better

#118

−0.3 #100

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #108

73 plays #16

Pace

◀ FSU faster

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	44.2 #2	30.2 #110	FSU
Yards / play	7.33 #8	6.29 #124	FSU
PPA / play	+0.31 #12	+0.22 #122	FSU
Success rate	49% #22	46% #116	FSU

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: FSU defense

	STAN off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #122	23.0 #58	FSU
Yards / play	5.12 #108	5.12 #41	FSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	+0.11 #76	Even
Success rate	38% #119	42% #79	FSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	12.2 #4	13.8 #4	26.0 #3	8.7 #25	9.0 #30	17.7 #22
STAN allowed	8.5 #123	10.3 #116	18.8 #127	5.0 #64	6.3 #63	11.3 #63

STAN scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	5.0 #88	6.3 #106	11.3 #103	2.7 #131	4.8 #110	7.5 #128
FSU allowed	5.8 #78	4.7 #19	10.5 #45	5.2 #71	5.5 #50	10.7 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.