SMU @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Clemson · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

SMU

4-2 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

Clemson

3-3 · Power #34

final

Closing spread

CLEM -5.5

✓ SMU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 23–29 CLEM

✗ CLEM (67%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -8.5

CloseCLEM -5.5

Total54.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -8.5

3 → SMU

CloseCLEM -5.5

3 pts toward SMU

Total

Open54.5

▼ 5

Close49.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -8.5 · closed CLEM -5.5 · moved 3 toward SMUmodel CLEM -9

model CLEM -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 57% (155 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 58% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -8.5

CloseCLEM -5.5

Total54.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 5.5-point home favorite against SMU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 35–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 49.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 4.9; 43.4 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT vs DUKE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	28–26	L	O49
Close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	28–21	W	U51
Close	LSU vs FLA 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	20–10	W	U47.5
Close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	25–10	W	U43
Close	UTAH vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	10–23	L	U47
Close	UK vs SC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	14–24	L	U44.5
Close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Close	WISC vs MD 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-5	23–10	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU LLLLW	1-5	17%	0-2	0-1
CLEM LLLWW	2-4	33%	0-3	2-4

Venue/role: SMU away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU OUUUU	1-5	17%	4-2
CLEM UUOOU	2-4	33%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 520 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
CLEM	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SMU 0–1 CLEM CLEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · CLEM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2024	Clemson 34 @ SMU 31	SMU -2.5	CLEM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+12.5 →+6.1▼ 6.4#46

CLEM+15.2 →+11.3▼ 3.9#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

SMU

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#42

Offense

◀ SMU better

#61

#51

Defense

Even

#38

+0.8 #22

Turnovers

◀ SMU better

−0.7 #121

64 plays #110

Pace

CLEM faster ▶

67 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #41	18.5 #29	Even
Yards / play	6.36 #34	4.82 #31	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #35	+0.05 #45	Even
Success rate	44% #57	40% #47	Even

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #83	22.3 #56	SMU
Yards / play	6.09 #48	5.45 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #69	−0.03 #24	SMU
Success rate	46% #45	41% #58	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	6.2 #69	12.2 #22	18.3 #36	4.7 #95	9.8 #20	14.5 #52
CLEM allowed	4.3 #56	7.2 #69	11.5 #62	2.8 #18	4.2 #31	7.0 #16

CLEM scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	8.0 #36	9.2 #65	17.2 #47	4.0 #104	5.2 #102	9.2 #114
SMU allowed	2.8 #26	6.8 #62	9.7 #37	2.2 #14	8.8 #122	11.0 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.