Georgia Tech @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Tech

6-0 · Power #39

▲ winner

Final

Duke

4-2 · Power #47

final

Closing spread

DUKE -3.5

✓ GT W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

GT 28–31 DUKE

✗ DUKE (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -2.5

CloseDUKE -3.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -2.5

1 → DUKE

CloseDUKE -3.5

1 pt toward Duke

Total

Open60.5

▲ 1

Close61.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -2.5 · closed DUKE -3.5 · moved 1 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -1

model DUKE -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (249 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (87 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -2.5

CloseDUKE -3.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 3.5-point home favorite against GT, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GT won 27–18 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 61.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 3.2; 55 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-5	41–13	W	U62.5
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	45–28	W	O57.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	UCF vs SMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	41–19	W	U65
Very close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-1	21–38	L	O57.5
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	TTU vs BAY 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	17–45	L	O61
Very close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5
Very close	TXST vs UL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	17–23	L	U60.5
Very close	UNC vs PITT 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	42–24	W	O65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT WWLLW	4-2	67%	1-1	1-0
DUKE LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: GT away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT OUOOU	3-3	50%	6-0
DUKE OOOUO	5-1	83%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 42 in the 4th quarter and got 25. 46% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GT	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
DUKE	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GT 57–35 DUKE (1 tied) GT leads · 93 games since 1933 · GT has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Duke 14 @ Georgia Tech 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GT+6.9 →+9.1▲ 2.2#31

DUKE+1.9 →+7.9▲ 6.0#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#23

Offense

Even

#21

#55

Defense

◀ GT better

#75

−0.5 #104

Turnovers

DUKE better ▶

+0.8 #27

66 plays #80

Pace

Even

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GT has the ball

Advantage: GT offense

	GT off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #24	25.5 #79	GT
Yards / play	7.26 #9	5.68 #88	GT
PPA / play	+0.20 #42	+0.12 #81	GT
Success rate	50% #15	40% #51	GT

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE offense

	DUKE off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #26	21.0 #48	DUKE
Yards / play	7.15 #12	5.31 #55	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.30 #16	+0.10 #71	DUKE
Success rate	48% #28	40% #44	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

GT scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	8.2 #32	8.3 #82	16.5 #57	9.3 #16	9.7 #21	19.0 #13
DUKE allowed	7.5 #113	7.8 #85	15.3 #102	4.5 #54	5.7 #55	10.2 #46

DUKE scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	5.0 #90	13.0 #12	18.0 #40	8.0 #35	10.5 #13	18.5 #15
GT allowed	2.2 #13	6.8 #62	9.0 #31	4.5 #54	6.5 #78	11.0 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.