Duke @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Duke

3-2 · Power #47

▲ winner

Final

California

4-1 · Power #76

final

Closing spread

DUKE -3.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 28–24 CAL

✓ DUKE (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -3.5

CloseDUKE -3.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -3.5

no move

CloseDUKE -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -3.5 · unchangedmodel DUKE -2

model DUKE -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (172 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -3.5

CloseDUKE -3.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 3.5-point road favorite at CAL, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 45–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 3.5; 54.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNC @ NCSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–39	L	O55.5
Very close	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	TCU @ CIN 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–13	W	U58.5
Very close	ARK @ MIZ 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	27–29	L	O55.5
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Very close	WAKE @ NCST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	21–30	L	U54
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	45–18	W	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE –LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1
CAL WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-0

Venue/role: DUKE away, as favorite; CAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OOOOU	4-1	80%	3-2
CAL OUOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 464 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	7-3 70%
CAL	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+1.9 →+6.0▲ 4.1#43

CAL+3.8 →+0.3▼ 3.5#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

DUKE

Longer bar = better

CAL

#27

Offense

◀ DUKE better

#102

#84

Defense

CAL better ▶

#35

+0.2 #64

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #57

65 plays #92

Pace

CAL faster ▶

68 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #42	18.0 #30	Even
Yards / play	7.26 #12	5.14 #50	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.29 #24	−0.01 #32	Even
Success rate	48% #31	37% #26	Even

When CAL has the ball

Even matchup

	CAL off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #92	26.4 #90	Even
Yards / play	5.35 #97	5.86 #103	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #117	+0.13 #83	DUKE
Success rate	41% #100	40% #58	DUKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	4.6 #100	10.8 #40	15.4 #65	9.6 #18	9.8 #22	19.4 #13
CAL allowed	2.8 #29	5.2 #35	8.0 #25	5.4 #78	4.6 #34	10.0 #47

CAL scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	6.2 #69	4.2 #123	10.4 #112	5.6 #72	8.8 #41	14.4 #58
DUKE allowed	6.2 #92	8.0 #88	14.2 #93	5.4 #78	6.8 #77	12.2 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.