Boston College @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Boston College

1-3 · Power #84

final

Final

Pittsburgh

2-2 · Power #35

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -6.5

✓ PITT W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 25–31 PITT

✓ PITT (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -4.5

ClosePITT -6.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -4.5

2 → PITT

ClosePITT -6.5

2 pts toward Pittsburgh

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -4.5 · closed PITT -6.5 · moved 2 toward PITTmodel PITT -2

model PITT -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (182 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (176 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -4.5

ClosePITT -6.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 6.5-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 10, covered 10, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 48–7; the favorite covered, as in 10 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 54.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 68%

Favorite covered

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 17.3 against an average line of 6.1; 47.9 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	COLO vs CIN 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	34–23	W	P57
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	45–28	W	O57.5
Very close	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	24–14	W	U51
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	SJSU vs UNLV 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	40–7	W	U51.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-11	21–6	W	U52
Very close	FRES vs SJSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-6.5	33–10	W	U55
Very close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-0
PITT WWLL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: BC away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC OOOU	3-1	75%	1-3
PITT OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 475 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
PITT	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BC 1–1 PITT Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · BC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Pittsburgh 23 @ Boston College 34	BC -3.5	BC W
Nov 16 2023	Boston College 16 @ Pittsburgh 24	PITT -2.5	PITT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC+1.8 →+2.5▲ 0.7#63

PITT+2.5 →+1.7▼ 0.8#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

PITT

#37

Offense

◀ BC better

#57

#58

Defense

PITT better ▶

#31

−0.8 #118

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #125

68 plays #47

Pace

◀ BC faster

63 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #28	22.8 #60	BC
Yards / play	6.51 #36	4.16 #13	PITT
PPA / play	+0.22 #41	+0.01 #40	Even
Success rate	47% #43	33% #11	PITT

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #17	27.5 #99	PITT
Yards / play	6.45 #39	5.07 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.03 #50	BC
Success rate	43% #72	38% #31	BC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BC scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	7.0 #55	12.8 #26	19.8 #34	6.8 #59	7.8 #59	14.5 #57
PITT allowed	0.0 #1	10.0 #111	10.0 #48	4.3 #56	6.8 #76	11.0 #62

PITT scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	9.5 #24	12.5 #27	22.0 #23	8.0 #41	9.3 #32	17.3 #29
BC allowed	5.8 #90	7.0 #73	12.8 #82	4.3 #56	6.8 #76	11.0 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.